The first debate is in so now would be a good time to go over the political odds landscape.
First let me update my wager fading the 30 House Dems that won in 2018 that trump carried in 2016. So far I have been able to fade 15 of those as the lines have not been posted on the other 15.
Here they are:
GA-06 29/71 price now 28/72 -1
ME 02 51/49 price now 18/82 -33
IA-01 32/68 price now 24/76 -8
SC -01 54/46 price now 37/63 -17
NY-11 36/64 price now 36/64 0
NJ -03 34/66 price now 33/69 -1
IA-02 29/61 price now 32/68 +3
MN-07 68/32 price now 70/30 +2
NY-22 47/53 price now 51/49 +4
OK-05 68/32 price now 49/51 -19
VA-07 43/57 price now 26/74 -17
NM-02 Republican 43/57 The line is now 45/55. +2
NJ-02 66/34 Price Now 50/50 -16
VA-02 24/76 Price now 35/65 +11
Ut-04 50/50 Price Now 50/50 0
NJ-03 34/66 Price now 29/71 -5
If you are looking at joining me, for most you can get better prices then I got awhile back:) I am hoping the rest of the lines come out soon as I want to have all 30 wagers in on these.
Trump 48/55 +7Pts I took Trump at 45/55. At some books, you have to lay -105 to wager on Trump!
I think Trump getting 3 to 2 is an excellent wager. Starting to get as good as the dirty 30 wagers in terms of equity. The 3 to 2 is no longer available. It is pretty much even money right now. There has been a massive move toward Trump in the last 2 weeks.
There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts. As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.
The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins 2. He is costing the establishment a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.
I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:) Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 63/40 Same as Trump Biden odds
Again I believe the value is on the Republicans, It looks like a repeat of 2016 to me with the polling. Note that on the major betting sites you cannot get anywhere near 3 to 2 on Trump. The line is much closer. Predict it has some great value.
Control of the House:
87/16 Democrats: +8 Pts
I took 4 to 1 and now staring at 5 to 1. Lots of EV in getting 5 to 1 here. I may end up wagering more at this price.
Control of the Senate:
61/40 -11 Pts toward the Republicans Losing the Senate.
I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda. The better wager to me is getting 6 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House.
I think most likely Collins is going to lose Maine, but Alabama is a certain pickup. So we are back to +3 Republicans. I cannot imagine the Dems picking up 3 seats. The problem of course is that if they do and it is 50/50 you have Romney who will torpedo Trump every chance he gets. Then there is Murkowski. If Collins wins which I do not think she is even trying, then it is +4 Republicans which will give them some breathing room.
Another wager I made that I felt had a lot of value is Where the Dems will sweep all 3 branches:
I received 43/57 that they would not, and the line is now 54/46 -11 Pts. This has turned completely around which means to me it has more EV right now at almost getting 3 to 2 against a sweep.
The public is convinced right now it’s going to be a Democrat sweep. Perhaps it will be, but as a bettor typically when everyone is thinking one way the opposite happens more often than not.
I am getting more and more calls from poker players I know wanting to make big wagers on Biden. That in the past has been a good contrarian indicator. Actually one of the best I have had over the years.
We do not have long now to see how this turns out, Should be interesting:)
Good Luck whichever way you are wagering.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks