Time to take another look at the political odds and some of the changes.
The last time I wrote Kavanaugh getting confirmed by 10/31st was sitting at 3/2 in favor. That is way down from 10 to 1.
A lot has happened since then, as for the time being both are to testify this Thursday.
The odds right now are sitting at 6 to 4 that he will be confirmed before 10/31st. It went as low as 50/50 when it became apparent that Grassley did not have it in him to move the issue to a vote in the judiciary committee.
At 6 to 4 the wager seems to have very little value to me. At 10 to 1 it looked like a gift. Never underestimate, the Republicans screwing up a sure thing.
There have been multiple offers and demand to the point now where the hearing is set for Thursday but the terms of the hearing are not set.
That means there is likely to be no hearing Thursday. But we will see.
A new line popped up on whether Ford would Testify by 9/28th. You can get 3 to 1 right now that she will not testify.
I view the odds at 50/50 at best. Perhaps even 2 to 1 against. There is a lot of value taking 3 to 1 here that she does not testify by that date.
I expect a new set of demands or an “I can not make it on Thursday, But can next Monday routine at the last second. The goal here is clearly to prevent a vote on Kavanaugh until after the midterms in the hope the Democrats can take back the Senate. Or at the very least use the issue to fundraise for the midterms. It has little to do with whether the charges are true or not.
Another line that just came up was whether Rosenstein would be Deputy AG on 9/30. You can get 11 to 1 that he will not be.
If the deadline were 10/31st I would make the wager and take 12 to 1. But with only 5 days away and Sessions completely silent on the new revelations yesterday about Rosenstein, 9/30 is just cutting it too close.
Another wager that I believe to have value is the control of the house after the midterms. It is widely accepted no that the Republicans are going to lose the house in the midterms.
Matter of fact, almost everyone that talks about it that conclusion is almost 100%. And the betting odds 2 to 1 that they will take control of the house.
As a contrarian, I would be betting the Democrats do not pick up the house in November. Rarely is the herd correct! Especially when they are in 100% agreement.
Polling as we have seen is very unreliable. Trump’s rallies set new records everywhere he goes. Combine that with the hesitancy of many to say they will vote Republican because of the violence we are seeing, and it ripe for the Republican to pull it off and keep the house in November.
I would take the 2 to 1.
Finally, I am still sticking with an across the board fade of every incumbent Democrat running in States that Trump carried easily.
I cannot imagine if you bet every one of these that you would end up losing. Most likely you would have a nice gain:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks