A lot going on now with the winding down of the impeachment trial and Iowa finished for the Dems. So a good time to take a look and see how the odds have shifted:
The odds of a conviction in the Senate have dropped to almost 25 to 1 against. This is a new low and is dropping daily. If I were forced to bet this I would lay the odds. There is no way at this point there is going to be a conviction in the Senate. The only question is whether Romney votes to impeach and where they get several Democrats to acquit.
Romney is about 4 to 1 in favor of voting for acquittal. Which as it turns out is the most likely to vote to convict on the Republican side.
Of the 3 Democrats that could vote to acquit:
Manchin is the leader at 15 to 1 in favor of acquittal.
Jones is is a tad over 2 to 1 to convict.
Sinema is 2 to 1 to convict.
So its likely they only get 1 crossover vote to acquit on the Democrat side.
No matter how you look at it, the vote in the House was bipartisan against impeachment, and it looks likely it will be bipartisan against conviction in the Senate.
Trump is about even money against the field right now to win a 2nd term. While Sanders is the closest to him at 3 to 1. Biden has dropped to 7 to 1 and is about tied with Bloomberg.
The Democrats are scrambling now to assure Sanders does not get the nomination. This can only help Trump as the Sanders supporters will end up staying at home rather than support a party that screwed their candidate a 2nd time.
The odds of Hillary running is up to about 7 to 1 against. This is a pretty good longshot wager. Taking the 7 to 1 that she runs. I would not hold onto it very long. But there should be enough of a scare at the convention that you could lay it off with a nice gain.
Also, the Republicans are now a slight favorite to win the presidency in 2020. Several months ago they were a dog and came up to even money and now slowly are taking a lead.
I think the take away from all of this is the biggest loser in this entire clown show was Romney. It finally appears that people have had enough. There is a motion in Utah to allow the Recall of Senators. I doubt this passes, but it is a direct shot at Romney. In addition, CPAC has taken away his invitation to attend. That is big. That means Romney is dead in the water in the Republican party. It looks like he has finally figured out a way to self destruct completely.
The take away from all of this to me is how corrupt DC is. What happened in the House was contrary to every principle of justice America has. And to this day we still do not have the Atkinson transcript. As an attorney I still cannot comprehend how the entire record is not sent to the Senate, let alone the fact the Senators do not seem concerned about it at all.
America needs 2-year terms in the Senate, Term limits, Campaign finance reform, and a complete investigation into who else is stealing taxpayer money from foreign aid, by having there children work for foreign companies. This is not isolated to Biden. My guess is it is common practice, by both parties.
Control of the House: 5 to 2 in favor of the Dems
Control of the Senate: Just a tad less than 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans.
I like getting 5 to 2 that the Republicans take the House. As I see it it is going to hang on controlling voter fraud. If they get that done, the Republicans should take back the house easily. Getting 5 to 2 on what I see is at worst even money is a pretty good overlay.
I am waiting for lines to come out on the republican primary races and the senate and House races individually. That I think is where the easy money will be this year.
I will be looking to fade virtually every House member that is running in States that Trump won. With any luck, I will be getting plus odds on most of them as they will be the incumbent.
I am also going to be taking a close look at Graham in the primary. He has a primary challenger, and my guess is he will be a 10 to 1 favorite. Getting 10 to 1 that Graham will lose in the primary seems like a reasonable wager to me.
Collins does not have a primary challenger year. Why is a mystery to me, as when she voted for witnesses she virtually has sunk her chances at reelection. MAGA voter will stay home if she is on the ticket, and that means a guaranteed loss for her. If Rona was doing her job there would be a solid primary challenger in place already. But Rona is establishment. So do not expect anything at all from her.
That is the state of things as we head into Wednesday. The state of the Union is tomorrow. The Republicans were too lazy to finish this before the SOTU, but Trump will take it in stride as he does most everything else.
The Republican party does not deserve him. His African American support is climbing upwards to almost 40% of likely voters, as is his Hispanic support. Iranian Americans will be solidly in Trump’s corner.
What have the Republicans done to accomplish this? That is correct, nothing. This is all through the sheer will of President Trump. And yet they still cannot bring themselves to stand solidly behind him. The Republicans are a pathetic bunch, but the alternative to them is the death of America. So it makes the decision making pretty easy.
Those are my off the cuff thoughts tonight. Who knows what surprises lurk around the corner:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks