Updated political odds, with my thoughts on how recent events have changed the landscape for political wagering

Updated political odds, with my thoughts on how recent events have changed the landscape for political wagering

A lot has happened since my last post, Crazy Democrat Debate last night, Stone sentenced, Bolton, admits his comments were a publicity stunt. So let’s take a look at the lines and how they have changed.

Since my last post, I made two wagers. Both on the same bet. I bet against Sanders getting the Democrat nomination. My avg paid on the wager is 53/47. The line has moved against me, but I see no way the establishment is going to let him have the nomination.

It will end up being a brokered convention and again he will get the shaft. At least I am betting that way:)

The Dem nomination odds are stacking up as follows:

Sanders 56/44
Bloomberg 20/80
Biden 12/88
Buttigieg 11/89
Warren 6/94
Clinton 95/5
Klobuchar 3/97
Steyer 1/99

Aside from wagering against Sanders, I think getting 19 to 1 on Clinton is a decent wager. Once they get to a brokered convention anything can happen. She turned down any thought of being VP. Its a longshot but you are getting a nice price. Another decent value wager is getting 4 to 1 on Bloomberg.

You could bet on both and most likely win one of them. I see no way that Sanders gets the nomination. The Democrats know that Trump wins 48 states if Sanders heads the ticket.

The Presidential winner odds are:

Trump 55/45
Sanders 31/69
Bloomberg 12/88
Biden 6/94
Buttigieg 5/95
Warren 3/97

About the same as the Dem nomination with Trump into the mix. I think right now the best value is on the Dem nomination.

Control of the House after 2020

61/39 in favor of the Dems. This has come down from 5 to 2. The value is pretty much gone on this wager, however, I plan on wagering against the “dirty 30” across the board. They will all be incumbents, so most likely the odds will be even money to perhaps getting plus odds. I cannot see ending up behind when the smoke clears. At the worst half will lose. And at the best close to a clean sweep.

I think this is the best value of all heading into 2020.

Control of the Senate after 2020

72/30 in favor of the Republicans. This seems about right. I do not like either side of this wager.

Another wager I will be looking at is whether Graham wins the SC primary. The price will be sky-high, and SC is less than happy with him. I will likely have a small wager that Graham gets knocked off in the Republican primary.

Collins has no primary opponent and Maine is a tough state to handicap. So there is no wager there.

I would like to see a line come out on whether Romney finishes his term. Utah is on the warpath, and I could foresee something happening on that one. But until a line comes out it makes for interesting speculation.

That about covers it:) I am open to questions via email or skype.

You can follow the political odds at predictit.org. Predictit.org

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds
Skype: riccja

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