Markets are gapping down about 1/4% after a strong move up on Monday.
Of note, GS is -2.94% after bad earnings last night and BAC is +1.4%. USO +.31% TLT +.41%
Overall it looks like a flat reading to me.
On my GLD position we had a reversal into the close but no exit on the position as of yet.
My 1/4 position in SPY has a gain after yesterday and again no exit as of yet. Any rally today will most likely get me out of the trade.
On the home and world fronts, not much is new from yesterday. It is amazing how quiet things are when Congress is not in session. But our respite from that will be over next Monday when the talk will be shutting down the government. This is a wager I do not plan on taking this time around.
The Democrats are in free fall and forcing a shutdown would not shock me a bit. Actually, it would be consistent with their self-destructive actions both pre and post election. To refuse to accept the results of an election in a Democracy is a very dangerous precedent to take. The markets will not like it one bit if this continues.
In that regard, we had Demonstrations across the country on tax day purportedly on the issue of Trump’s tax returns. So, the Russian/Trump connection seems to be dead in the water and the strategy is moving on to tax returns.
From what I read the participants are part of far left groups that are financed and organized to do this very thing. So, to say it is a grassroots movement might be a bit of a stretch.
The problem is that these demonstrations seem to get more and more violent as we move further into the Trump presidency. Berkley is a good example.
Unless something is done about this I anticipate it will not be long before the violence gets out of control. Right now, it is fist fights and throwing things. But it would not take much for some nut to fire a gun.
Also disconcerting is that the Democratic leadership is doing nothing to quiet things down. In some instances, they are right there with the people out in the streets.
This is something as an investor you need to keep an eye on. If things get out of hand where fistfights turn into gun fights the market is going to sink like a rock for a few days.
We are 3 months into the Trump presidency and the Democrats have done virtually nothing except what they call resisting.
Could things get worse? Yes and I think they will as there is no one in the Democratic party that has the will to be the leader they need and get back on a path that is good for the country.
You can argue the pros and cons of policy, and I do on occasion, but to resist and take the position that the election is invalid is an entirely different matter.
The markets will only take so much of this. Much of this weakness was overdue but some are related to conditions here at home on the political front.
So, my thought on trading this mess is to do only short-term trading. 1 to 2 days rather than having a large portfolio with substantial funds at risk.
From time to time I point out what I feel are very good wagers on the political markets. I suggested that the odds of Trump winning the presidency had value and that the Trump impeachment odds looked like a large overlay betting the don’t.
One that stands out to me right now is the Georgia special election. Last I looked it was 50/50 in the betting markets. Betting on the Republicans to keep that seat to me has substantial value.
These odds are distorted because of the polling that at this point has 0 value. It is very similar to the polling that had Clinton 99% chance of winning. These pools are being used and distorted to some extent for political reasons. So, while it makes it difficult to figure out what is going on based on the polling , once you figure this out you can find some very good wagers.
So, today, it is republicans to keep the Georgia season even money. That is what it was yesterday. I have not looked this morning.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
