New Variable games ( Not plays)
516 APP St pick
543 Drexel +10
534 Quinnipiac Under 153
An early game tonight between two rated teams:
#20 Notre Dame
Betting is 62% on the Home Dog with the line moving from Pick to Duke -1.5-103. So first we have a red flag with over 50% of the betting on the dog and also a reverse line move favoring Duke. Variables favor Duke, Public betting favors Duke, Models however favor Notre Dame. I was looking for any excuse to take Duke tonight but with the models pointing the other way I am going to pass on the game.
Good Luck whichever way you go on the game
Sunday we had 1 play in college hoops and it was a winner with Washington +16.5 66-77.
Another light day today but a few games look promising tonight.
Let me share an email today:
Hope all is well. I was a little unclear on your message regarding the variable plays and how I can access them since you won\’t be posting them on the regular twitter feed. I would like to follow them to match them with my own research. Your variable plays are thus far providing me even more practice and I am enjoying the extra opportunity to learn through you.
“These are very high maintenance as they require following a number of different numbers right up until game time. The feedback I got from subscribers was that very few had an interest in these.
So, I will attempt to post the obvious on my website when I have time. However, I will, of course, continue tracking these myself in detail every day.
To give you an idea, the tracking of these along with getting the posts out 5 min before game time increases my workload x10!
Saying that I just discovered a method that might enable me to automate the process using a scraping method into excel. It still has a lot of bugs as I am less than versed on scraping data from websites into excel. But I am narrowing in on the right way to do this.
Once that is finished I should be able to post all New Variables in all games, side, and totals.”
One other item that I wanted to cover is preseason MLB is coming up in February with regular season shortly after.
I plan on having the same promotion I had last season. For those that are unfamiliar with it you can look at the posts shortly before regular season started last year.
But briefly If I have a losing season in regular season I will refund 1/2 of the subscription payments. This worked out well last season and added some end of the season excitment as we were right on the bubble heading into the last days.
A few changes this year. The promotion will last until the last MLB regular season game is played. I had cut if off several weeks before the end of the season last year.
In addition, I spent a lot of time reconciling the numbers as I know some of the subscribers did also. A subscribers reconciliation actually pointed out that I had made a mistake resulting in a lower amount of units!
But the problem is that there was too much time spent by myself and others getting the numbers down to the penny. So my intent this season is that reconciliations need to be sent no later than 1 weel after the previous weeks games ended. After that the numbers are the ones we are going to go with.
Despite the fact the reconciliation most likely made me money last season it is not fair to have any of you spending that amount of time on this. This solution should remedy that.
All other requirements will be the same. In particular that you need to be in the program on day 1 of the regular season and 2nd you need to be in the program through the last game that is played in regular season.
Thats it:) But I will be happy to answer questions.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks