Is there a way to reduce variability in sports betting? And at what cost???

2:30 Update:

I went through my messages and found one I think needs to be answered to clear up some things about the line:

“Rick, I have been mindful of trying to get the lines as close to yours as possible when I get them down, but sometimes you might have a play where you say ok Oak -120 and I can only get it at -125 at that point should i just be passing or should i still bet it, I have been working to get more outlets to find better lines and have had some success but sometimes its seems it moves while I’m finding a line or i just can’t get it
other times I find a line you say get +123 and i find it at +133 …. so I sometimes thing it goes both ways but I was wondering if you could expand on it”
My Response:
On the overnights,  unless you have outs most likely you will not get the lines I post. I post the pinnacle lines at the time I put out the play for consistency and also so that I am not guilty of line shopping. Whatever Pinnacle has that is the line I put out.
The best way to figure out what line to take is to take a look at a mix of 10c lines. Do not take the worst of the worst line on the game at the time you make the wager. This applies if you make the wager shortly after I put them out. But if you wait or its hours laters than it needs to be within 5c of the line I put out.
Getting the best line is as challenging as figuring out what side to bet on. That is why I feel it is necessary to have 2 books. One a public book and the other a Sharp book. That way you will have options that most bettors will not have in line selection. This will make a difference at the end of the season.
This is an excellent question and I welcome more about this subject as it is a very important one.

 

On Thursday we had 2 plays and went 0-2.

In MLB  we had was an overnight on Seattle +101 that lost 3-6. It was a half unit play.

For our first play of the season in WNBA we had Chicago on the money line +203 and they lost.

One thing I would like to mention on Money line games. If you wish to reduce swings you can pass on dogs over +150. The problem with that, of course, is by reducing swings you are also reducing EV. So while I do not do that as I take all trades I post, you might wish to consider it if you’re having difficulty with swings.

Today so far I have sent out 3 overnights.

We are starting a new month, so it is always interesting to see how this month will go compared to the rest. WNBA should start producing some plays now.

By way of interest, I just got another phone call today as to betting that Trump would not finish his first term. That makes a number of calls in the last few weeks.

Someone must think it is an easy bet that Trump will not finish his term. Myself, I think betting that he finishes is about the best bet you will ever make in betting. On Bovada you can get +110 if you want to bet he finishes. On the don’t you have to lay -150?

It’s rare that I take the position that the oddsmakers are way off, but this is one of them. My guess is the line reflects in part that bettors are taking the don’t in record numbers.In addition, it reflects the polling.

Relying on polling in today’s political environment is a big mistake. Just ask Paddy Power that paid out millions to bettors who bet on Clinton! Expensive mistake to say the least.

I will not bore you with my analysis but it is solid. Also, remember, that it is no sure thing, to say the least. But for value, I do not think you can beat it.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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