I went through my messages and found one I think needs to be answered to clear up some things about the line:
On Thursday we had 2 plays and went 0-2.
In MLB we had was an overnight on Seattle +101 that lost 3-6. It was a half unit play.
For our first play of the season in WNBA we had Chicago on the money line +203 and they lost.
One thing I would like to mention on Money line games. If you wish to reduce swings you can pass on dogs over +150. The problem with that, of course, is by reducing swings you are also reducing EV. So while I do not do that as I take all trades I post, you might wish to consider it if you’re having difficulty with swings.
Today so far I have sent out 3 overnights.
We are starting a new month, so it is always interesting to see how this month will go compared to the rest. WNBA should start producing some plays now.
By way of interest, I just got another phone call today as to betting that Trump would not finish his first term. That makes a number of calls in the last few weeks.
Someone must think it is an easy bet that Trump will not finish his term. Myself, I think betting that he finishes is about the best bet you will ever make in betting. On Bovada you can get +110 if you want to bet he finishes. On the don’t you have to lay -150?
It’s rare that I take the position that the oddsmakers are way off, but this is one of them. My guess is the line reflects in part that bettors are taking the don’t in record numbers.In addition, it reflects the polling.
Relying on polling in today’s political environment is a big mistake. Just ask Paddy Power that paid out millions to bettors who bet on Clinton! Expensive mistake to say the least.
I will not bore you with my analysis but it is solid. Also, remember, that it is no sure thing, to say the least. But for value, I do not think you can beat it.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks