We split on our ncaa hoops on Tues with St Joe winning the game as an 8 pt dog. But canisius at -4.5 got blown out.

Today nothing I can see in college hoops. If anything changes I will update but doesn’t look likely.

Might be a play in the college football game this evening. Nothing in the nba yet. And in the Nhl very likely to be several plays. I will update about 30 min before game time or when they become clear.

an email:

“Hi Rick! I have a question for you: yesterday I wasn’t fast enough to get San Diego st at -13,so I decided to pass,but just before the game started I decided to bet on the opposite side at +13.5 ,at +116. Do you think it was a good decision?

I really appreciate what you are doing ­čÖé Best Regards”

My response:

Its hard for me to fault your thinking. If you went opposite steam and got +116 at the end of the year you would most likely be in very good shape. Also you got very unlucky to not cover(i got very lucky)

My self I wouldn’t fade my plays. Last year they hit 60% and this year things look positive so far. But again…some of these lines move 3 to 5 pts….so its very tempting.

My advice…fade the other steam:) At least until my plays are proven not to have positive value.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

Showing 0 comments
  • Anonymous
    Reply

    "Hi Rick! I have a question for you: yesterday I wasn't fast enough to get San Diego st at -13,so I decided to pass,but just before the game started I decided to bet on the opposite side at +13.5 ,at +116. Do you think it was a good decision?"

    Well I know you asked Rick this question but I think it was a bad decision. Let me ask, what makes it a good decision to do that? Since you have no reason for making that bet in the first place it is just a random bet at best. But really it's not random because you are opposing someone you feel is strong enough to follow.

  • Eric
    Reply

    I'm also curious as to this kind of thinking. Assuming ricks's plays are a 60% favorite, we would need +150 every game to break even betting against his plays. I don think the difference between 13 and 13.5 is enough to account for the difference between +116 and +150. Even assuming ricks plays are 56% favorites we would still need about +125 to break even. It doesn't sound like a good bet to me…

  • mouldhouse
    Reply

    The two posters above are spot on. Fade after a 4-5 point move, but +116 with just half a point working for you, on an average play of Rick's based on the figures he's posted over time, has an alarmingly high probability of being a -EV play.

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