Nothing on Tues and again not much today. Nothing in college hoops or the nba. And maybe some nhl later today.

an email:

“Hi Rick,

wonder if you could shine some light on something to a total novice handicapper. The Bengals to me have looked nothing short of hopeless in the last couple of months, and whilst they have home turf advantage this weekend I do not understand how they are comfortable moneyline favourites? It is a match where two struggling teams are playing each other so anything is possible but to a novice this seems just wrong? I wondered what your opinion is?

Keep up the good work man. “

My Response:

I like to look for clues as the where the right side of a game is. First looking at the public….they are 55% on Cinci…so nothing there. The line opened at -1 and has stayed again nothing there. The variables I look at point to both sides. Also the models I use to determine fair value rates the game at around a pick. Now the only edge I could possibly use would be your perception that Cinci should not be the favorite in the game. Since you have stated your a novice handicapper I would then conclude that perhaps Cinci might be the right side. But thats way to thin to base a wager on. Also if I were sitting at the poker table and I heard the players talking about how cleveland was the nuts…again I would conclude cinci might be the right side:)

In any event…nothing i can see on that game at all.

TWitter: rickjsportplays

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