We had 1 play on Tues but it was rained out. Today 5 home dogs in baseball and I will update if anything becomes a play.
We are now carrying 3 swing trades. I might add a few more this morning but I will be looking to do that on another drop in the markets today.
I am a big fan of the market analysis and bookie crushing sports betting methods. I was just curious about the swing trades, I know you usually rely on a “gap up” in the market to get your gains. However, what if the market doesn’t gap up? A lot of times bear markets are far less choppy than bull markets once fear and hysteria takeover. Do you feel as if its possible a bunch of 1-5% gains will suddenly be wiped out by a 2 or 3 huge 20% losses if there is a big correction (which FWIW I think there will be with QE2 ending)”
Actually gaps have nothing to do with these trades except at times exiting on a gap up rather then waiting for the close. These are mean reversion trades attempting to catch short term swings in various stocks. I agree that once we hit a bear market this method will not work so well. However these methods have been backtested extensively. I suggest for a detailed explanation of the methods I am using go to Ripe Trade or System trading by Woodshedder. The links to these sites on on this blog.
As far as 20% gains wiping out 1-5% gains. Its of course possible that could happen. Although the backtesting wouldn’t support that. But as we all know from handicapping backtesting is not 100% predictive of future results. My feelings are the risk of that is minimal using the methods described in the two sites.
Your opinion is shared by many that a big correction is coming after QE2 ends. Really its shared by so many that I really feel that fear is overblown. Remember that short term interest rates are not going to be changed most likely until next year sometime. The fed is still going to have an accommodative monetary policy.