Tues we won our play on St Louis with an easy win. Nice to get those once in awhile.

Today a number of home dogs but none look particularly attractive. The closest is cleveland but is is still outside of being a play. So unless things change there will be no plays today.

A Comment:

“Hi Rick,
When you have a prolonged slump in MLB [or any sport] do you tweak your models? And if so, how often, and if not, why not?
thanks,”

I usually don’t tweak my models until after the season is over in preparation for the next season. This year in baseball I am using the exact same model I used last year. College and pro football will be the same. The nba I tweak every year…with no success And college baskets this next season I am tweaking the systems starting 1 week before conference play.

The reason I don’t tweak systems after a prolonged slump is typically the sample size of games is so small I do not feel you can draw any statistical significance to the slump. Drawdowns are just part of the handicapping experience. Looking at baseball for example….last season it gained around 15 units for the season with about 4 10 unit drawdowns during the season. This year it is in the hole around 4 units with a huge upswing the first month and an equally huge downswing the 2nd month.

Now if the method was down say 30 units this year…I would take a serious look at it (if I hadn’t jumped off a bridge by then) But down 4 units on essentially the worst 10c line available seems to me to be within the normal boundaries for a year.

Again if this happened several years in a row then again I would take a look at it.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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  • CG
    Reply

    Hey Rick

    So on your MLB plays obviously you are only considering home dogs (usually facing a good pitcher on the road). On your daily updates you’ll usually indicate that the other home dogs don’t meet your criteria and therefore you are passing.

    I was wondering in these games which you don’t see the home dog as a good enough play, does that mean that the road favorite is then an option? I wonder what the winning % is on road favorite games where you didn’t bet the home dog?

    My thinking was that if there were enough variables on a game to steer you away from one side, is that enough to steer you towards the other.

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