wedn plays

We won our Miami +11.5 in the nba on Tues. Nothing early today though.

Ncaa baskets:

The season is over and our final tally for all wagers was:

Combined early and late play totals:
Sides: 83-84-5 -5.65
totals: 114-93-4 +15.10

So we had a +9.55 unit season.

This was my first season wagering on ncaa baskets and I learned a few lessons:
1. Be much more selective on the sides and will be adding an additional filter.
2. Totals , not much to tweak here….although too many plays early in the season.

I am optimistic I can improve on this years results next season.

Poker Comments:

6. Game selection!!!!!!

Think of game selection as handicapping. Not only do you need to be a good player but you have to be better then the other players by enough to cover the house take.

The starting point would be where all players are equal in their abilities. With the house taking 250,000 a year all would split equally in the take by the end of the year…with the exception of variance. Some will run better then others of course.

But since no one knows what end of the probability curve they will be on any particular day or week or month the only thing you can do is handicap your skills against the other players skills and then come up with an estimate where you might come in in the long run.

If you look around the table and come to the conclusion that all the other players have a positive expectation not including the rake…that would not be a game to play in.

Its never that clear however. My rule of thumb is I like to have at least 4 players in the game that I feel have a negative earn rate. This alone might not be enough to overcome the rake…but its a start in the right direction.

Late plays:

There was one late play on tues and we won

Arizona +104 W

With the nba and nhl in full gear now late plays will become more important. There is very little overnight action so when I post around 7 am there is not a lot to go by for me. I will only post the clear cut morning plays and will update later via late plays.

These late plays are FREE. So if you want them sent to you send me an email and I will add you to the google group.

Late Play Record:

MLB 08 season
Sides: 1-0 +1.04

Arena football
Sides 0-1 -1.05
Total0-1-1 0.00
Sides 5-5 +0.95
Total 0-1-2 -1.00
Sides 25-15 +9.25
total 10-12-1 – 1.65
Sides: 1-0 +1.00
Total: 0-1 -1.05
totals: 7-5-1 + 1.75
sides: 8-23 -11.19
Total: 7-12 – 5.65
Sides: 1-1 0.00
Total: 0-2 -2.15


Record to date:

NFL (07-08)completed
Sides 18-10 +7.50
Total 0-1 -1.05

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 33-15-2 +17.15

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

NBA 07-08
Sides 11-14 -3.60
Total 6-7 -1.30

Nba 06-07 completed
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 4-11 -5.75

nhl06-07 completed
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-93 +3.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

Arena Football
Total: 1-0 +1.00

Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

Oct06: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov06: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec06: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan07: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb07: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar07: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April07: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May07: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne07: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July07: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug07: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sep07t 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct07: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov07: 40 bet +2.00 units +5.39%
Dec07: 18 bets 0.05 units +2.78%
Jan08: 12 bets -3.60
Feb 08 5 bet +0.80
Mar 08 16 bets -4.10
Apr 08 1 bet +1.00
Year2 120 bet +14.05+10.97%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70units +6.91%
Total: 854 bets +62.75+7.24%

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