9:15 Update
The markets opened with a up of almost 1.5% and are now sitting at less then .5% 3 hours into the trading day. Looks like no gap and go today. This is a good example of why swing trades are usually not considered when there are large opening gaps. Since you have 3 possibilities and two of them are bad for swing trading its best to wait for better opportunities. I am completely flat in the market right now. 100% in cash. My idea right now is to wait out this slide to the downside and then start initiating portfolio positions in mid to late October. The best time to be in the markets is from NOV to APRIL. That consideration though is at least a month off. For now its short term setups. I did put on a trade at the close Tuesday which I exited at the open today for a 3.48% gain. Right now its wait for the next short term opportunity. My feeling still is this is not a healthy market and we are heading back down to test the lows. This of course is off if the fed changes course. No hint of that yet though.
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8:30 Update
Tuesday in MLB we went 0-2 on our plays. Can it get any worse…..Usually I say it can always get worse but in this instance NO:) This is as bad as it gets for handicapping. Is it bad handicapping or variance. My opinion is a little of both. Only the most stubborn of Handicappers would admit at this point that my MLB handicapping methods have a positive EV. So I spent a few hours last night revamping everything. Let me say that several hours is not near enough time to give it. But I am going to finish the MLB season. There will not be many plays and the Weightings you will not be able to compare with the previous ratings. So do not even attempt to reach a correlation.
The good news is College football regular season starts tomorrow and the NFL is a little less then 2 weeks away.( finally)
So for today in MLB ( I cringe anymore when I type this:))
Wednesday MLB Play
Milw +132
Early MLB Weightings:
951 MIA – A Conley 1
952 ATL – W Perez
953 CIN – R Iglesias .5+
954 CHC – J Hammel
965 LAA – A Heaney 0
966 OAK – S Gray 0
967 NYY – M Tanaka 0
968 BOS – H Owens 1+
969 TB – E Ramirez 0
970 BAL – K Gausman 0
971 CLE – T Bauer 0+
972 TOR – R Dickey 0
955 PHI – A Nola 0
956 NYM – M Harvey 0
973 DET – R Wolf 1
974 KC – Y Ventura
977 CHW – C Rodon 1
978 MIN – T Milone
957 PIT – J Locke
958 MIL – Z DAVIES 3+
975 SEA – T Walker 0
976 HOU – S Kazmir 0
959 WAS – M Scherzer 1
960 STL – M Wacha
961 ARI – C Anderson 0
962 COL – J Gray 0
979 TEX – C Hamels
980 SD – I Kennedy 1
963 SF – M Leake 0
964 LAD – C Kershaw 0
Another day and another huge gap. This time 1.4% to the upside 30 min before the open. If your actively trading now and enjoying yourself you are most likely doing things the right way. If your losing sleep and worrying about every trade you make then you have to reevaluate. Thats not the way its supposed to be. There is plenty of good reading material on the internet these days that is free or close to free . If you want any recommendations drop me an email.
I was flat until right before the close yesterday and put on a trade that this morning shows a 4.41 % gain. I will most likely exit shortly after the open. As far as other trades today I wont be doing much. Breakout trading is tough but in this environment is next to impossible. Add to it a large gap up and best to stand aside for swing trades today.
My thoughts …..this rally is to be sold. Where I wish I knew! Just have to watch and see how price action develops. I do not think this market is out of the woods for awhile. Most likely we head down at some point in the next 30 days to test the lows. That assumes no change in the fed’s policy. Right now it looks like they have their blinders on so be prepared.
If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.
For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: riccja3@gmail.com
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
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