2:40 Update
Tuesday we went 0-2 on our College hoop plays. We had Texas San Antonio +19 and also the under on the game and it went the other way …creighton and over. Neither side was close. So College hoops are coming a bit back to earth after a 7-1 run.
Tonight there will be plays in college hoops and I will send them out as I did last night shortly before game times. The liquidity in most of the games is very low so you see changes in the last 10 minuites that sometimes takes the game outside of a play. Also I noticed that the totals are moving after I release the play. Not as dramatic as it was over the last two years as then you only had seconds before the line started moving. But now you have a min or two to get down on the number I post.
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Tonight again two games in College football:
Central Mich
Kent
The betting is vary heavy on the Road Favorite at 81% but the line has moved away from the betting from -10 to -7.5 . Normally I would be looking to get all over Kent. But the line move is too great to get on the game now. The number at 20% is fine but the models say that 7.5 is too much of a move. So I am passing on the game.
Western Mich
Northern Illinois
Betting is 66% on the home Favorite with the line staying steady at -3. It was at -2.5 for awhile but now it back to -3. Models say that line is right and variables are neutral on the game. So a clear coin toss as I view the game.
On thing I am noticing in college football this year is the sharps are pounding these games where the line is moving contrary to the betting quite a bit. In the old days a line that opened at -10 and had 80% of the betting might be -13 by game time. So you had the luxury of waiting while the public slammed the game. But you rarely see this now and to the contrary you see the line moving in the opposite direction. Fortunately my models are the most accurate in College football so I can avoid taking a +7.5 off of a +10 opener. You have to realize that usually the people that put out the opening line are not detached from reality. Of all the participants in this zero sum game that for the most part are the brightest. So you have to respect the opening line to a degree.
Good Luck Tonight whatever you decide to do on these games!
The market was moving along nicely on Tuesday with a nice follow through on the up side of about 100 points after Mondays 200 + day and out of Germany news came out of a terrorist plot which promptly sent the market lower. It turned out to be a false alarm but it gives you a good sense of what you are dealing with right now if your trading. The world is in high alert right now the highest its been and unfortunately this is the environment for the time being.
But now we are all safe today because the Fed Minutes are out at 8 PST and we get the benefit of two fed governors letting us know what is in store for us in December. Now logically you would think that the fed governors would use this as an opportunity to calm the markets. I doubt the fed minutes will do that as this was before the attack in France. But you have two supposedly thinking humans on tap that now have a chance to let everyone know the fed sees what is going on and rest assured will take international events into consideration. After all if you do not think the attacks in paris will have an effect on the international economy just ask yourself how many people now are rushing to the City of Love for a visit? Tourism is going to take a huge hit all over the world. So lets see what are two learned governors say today. Rate hikes in December or Sanity!
For those that are interested here is the schedule:
US-FOMC Minutes – 01:00 PM
US-William Dudley Speaks – 06:30 AM
US-Rob Kaplan Speaks – 11:00 AM
I am long a portfolio of stocks with covered calls and also put on some swing trades yesterday. Despite the carnage I am betting cooler heads will prevail at the Fed. with no rate hike in Dec. Combine that with the seasonality and I am sticking to my routine.
The market is up almost a 1/3% about 45 min before the open. It wants to go up..I hope the fed lets it.
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RickJ
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