1:55 Update
Tuesday we went 1-3 on our college hoop totals. We lost our first because of OT:( The other two were lost by less then a bucket! But today we are 2-1 so far in College totals with more to come. For subscribers you can see that the books have got the numbers down pretty close right now so its important that you not take any worse then the line I post. The line was moving quite a bit the last few years when all the picks were free. But now you have time to get down so no need to chase.
That is one of the advantages of being a subscriber during college hoops. You do not have to race to get down on these plays. Before you only had seconds to get down!
No College football tonight but 3 NFL games tomorrow. I am still looking the games over. Another tough week. Also I will be traveling but will attempt to post something on the games.
Also its still very early in the college hoop season so if you have any inclination at all just sign up using the top right paypal button and pick the subscription you would like. The amount I charge is peanuts compared to what most of the services charge. Many charge 1500 per sport per season. Some only 999 per sport per season. Which can cost you upwards of 2 to 3 thousand a year. For my service you only have to subscribe monthly so you can pick the months you with to join that covers the sports your interested in. If you have any questions just let me know. But all the plays are delivered through my private twitter feed which you can then have sent to your phone or email!
Another good discussion with a subscriber to share:
“Rick couple questions on ROI in sports are you looking for about 5%? And how many bets a year do you think you make of your standard 1 unit or 2% of bankroll? I am doing some math I have a 60k roll for sports and I am betting 1000 a game currently I am thinking about going to 1100 or 1200 a game but I am also a little more risk adverse than some. Also there was a total today you had Pepperdine u154.5 think it landed on 154 by the time I got to it was at 153.5 and I reluctantly bet it and lost I think it landed on 154 I didn’t even look cause I was sick about it but at what point should I just pass on a game you put out when the line moves? Thanks for all your help”
My response:
“5% would be the upper end. Also it depends on the sport. Basketball that is obtainable. Football used to be but things have changed a bit as I have mentioned many times on the blog. NHL more like 2 or 3% . MLB similar to NHL but even tougher. There is no easy money here its a grind like all types of positive ev gambling!
As far as the lines. I would highly recommend if you cannot get the line I put out pass on the game. There are plenty of plays no reason to lose a play because you took the worst of the line. That is why it is important to have a few different outs for your wagers.
Finally if 60000 is an amount you could lose completely and not be effected either financially or emotionally then fine. However if either of the above is not true you need to get the amount at risk in line. When your gambling you always have to consider a very bad run. When I played poker full time I experienced those about every 3 years.
As far as bet sizing. Just use 2% of your bankroll. Then adjust the bet size by the size of your bankroll. 2% is a good number to use as it adjusts fast enough but not too fast on drawdowns. Huge difference when you use 3%.
I hope that helps. If you have any other questions do not hesitate to ask.”
Good Luck Tonight
The markets this morning are up slightly 50 min before the open. Typically the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is a bullish day and that is what I am anticipating. The scenario would be a gap higher and a run to +100 or more by the end of the day. What we are not in typical times right now with Americans being warned about the risk of terrorist attacks both out of the U.S. and in the U.S. I myself will be traveling inside the U.S.
I wish the best for everyone over the Thanksgiving Holiday season. This is really a time to be thankful we all live in the U.S. where so far the insanity of the world around us has been for the most part kept off our shores.
I am long a portfolio of stocks and have taken off most of the covered calls anticipating a strong year end rally. This is the most positive seasonality you will get in the markets from here to year end. I want to try to take advantage of it if it happens. Also I am in 13 swing trade longs. This is on the high side for me but they triggered and again the wind should be at our backs for awhile.
As far as the Fed everyone is anticipating a rate hike in December so that surprise is off the table. The only positive surprise will be to the upside of they do not raise rates. Note the ECB is lowering rates and have announced no intention of tightening any time soon. So I guess the question is why is the Fed intent on raising rates right now. Myself I have no idea. If terrorism isnt kept in check the world is going to experience a global depression not seen in some time. Tourism is drying up to Europe right now let alone in other parts of the world. This will have a profound impact next year.
Enough for the good news….lets see how the markets do today!
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