As I am getting tired of watching my sea of red this morning thought I would switch over to sports for awhile.
Tuesday we went 2-0 on our plays. Winning both rather easily with Winnipeg +151 winning 4-1 and Depaul in college hoops covering the 9.5. So a +2.51 unit day for us on a slow tuesday! They had it covered the entire game. Our setups on the other hand went 0-2.
Things will be picking up a bit today with a large schedule of college hoop games. I posted a few days ago regarding the NHL and how to determine whether to bet the games if you do not get the line I post.
My posts are based upon the PInnacle sports books lines at the time I put the games out as plays. Some times you will be able to get this price or better and sometimes not.
So go to Donsbest.com , Vegasinsider.com, sbrsports.com or any other site that gives out lines for multiple books.
I went through the books that give out 10c lines:
Now that is six books whose lines are readily available and who you should be able to bring up on one page at the same time. Then just take a look at the lowest price you can get and do not wager if you cannot get that price. Sometimes you will be able to get these lines at 20c books as many pump up the favorite with the action. I have seen occasions where I could get a better price on the dog at a 20c book then a 10c book. But that is rare.
So…in the NHL if you cannot get the price I post then go over to the webpage you have configured with these books and see what the lowest price is of the six books. If you can get that price or better go ahead with the wager. That should help you out on the NHL.
For subscribers if you have any questions just let me know. If your not a subscriber yet and missed out on the +2.51 unit day yesterday then go hit the paypal button on the upper right and Join right now! You will be joining a group of handicappers who at the end of 2016 will be able to say that they are in the 1% of the sports bettors that had a winning year.
Hope to see you join us!
Waking up this morning I browsed the news and of course it was nothing but positive events all over the world. N.Korea successfully tested a Hydrogen Bomb…wait did I say positive! And the market is responding gaping down as I type this almost 2% 45 min before the open.
Would you say the market is a bit jumpy right now? Of course we can always count on the Fed to calm things down. A fed governor was speaking already this morning gleefully saying they have no more ammo to fight with. Comforting. But of course the fed gave no indications of slowing down their obsessive quest for more rate hikes. Meanwhile the Chinese who most likely thought they would run into a headwind when manipulating their currency and devaluing it multiple times now are wondering what these westerners must be thinking.
No matter what you think of Trump he has it right about other countries taking advantage of America in financial matters. Is this 2008 all over again? Are we at the beginning of a meltdown?
First its much different then 2008 because you had in 2008 a federal reserve that at least made attempts at calming the markets. Now for whatever reason every time they talk the markets respond with 200 point drops. I do not think you can explain this by saying they are ignorant. There are some very highly educated people making decisions in the federal reserve. So it has to be intentional. The Federal Reserve is intentionally going to throw the country into a recession. One that we have not seen since the 30s.
The more difficult question to me is why? And I do not know the answer. It could be a number of reasons from simple to sinister but its not part of this site to go in that direction. As a trader just know the tailwind of the last 7 years is now gone. Its a headwind now.
If your in the market all you can do is watch how things unfold. If your worried and staying up at night then you have not been reading what I have been saying. Its really as simple as if you do not position size and manage your trades properly you will lose money and most likely a lot of it. If you do however size your trades according to what you can reasonably risk then this morning is a blip in the scheme of things.
Panic is not an option if your a trader. As an instrument rated pilot I have done quite a bit of reading over the years regarding flying an airplane aside from having 1000s of hours as pilot in command. One excerpt from a book I read has alway stuck in my mind. Your taught early on to not let your plan go into a spin. What happens is in a spin you lose control of management of the plane. And to get back control as your spiraling to the ground is a very difficult and complex procedure even if you had plenty of time. This author in teaching how to get out of a spin ended the lesson with…..”considering the alternative you had better do everything you can to pull out of the spin”
The analogy I am making can be applied to all aspects of life. In trading if you panic you go broke especially if you have over traded. So youd best fight off the panic and get your mind right. There is no % in losing control. In poker terms…do not tilt!
So that’s my lesson for today. If you have been following this site for awhile the last few days will be a walk in the park. We went through this time and again last year. Its just the the market is right now. Extremely high volatility. If you can trade through this then the remaining 90% of your trading will be very easy for you. Right now this is as difficult as it gets.
I have on a basket of stocks for a portfolio trade (Nov through April) and some mean reversion and break out trades. You can always see how I am doing on my closed trades by going to my google docs spreadsheet. Do not let the first few trades of this year scare you:) With my position sizing I can easily have 20,000 to 30,000 drawdowns.
And Its going to take a lot today to get me out of a good mood after going 2-0 yesterday on my sports plays for +2.51 Units!
Well back to the charts!
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