Wedn NHL Play
Wedn College Hoops
750 Texas Tech +12
“I liked that OKC was coming off a string of blowout easy covers and Utah, quite to the contrary had been doing poorly. I figured that this would greatly affect casual bettors beyond what was reflected by the public being 75% on OKC. Is there any merit or would you see this as factored into the line and consensus already? For example, if there are 2 games each with the public 75% on the fave, would you agree that the game with commonly known trends “favoring” the fave to a greater extent would be a better play on the dog despite identical consensus numbers? Please let me know if I’m way off here and this is just noise.”
Seems like noise to me. At 75% on a road favorite..anything that you most likely can think of why the public likes the favorite is already built into the line.
Another thing on the game is that the line moves do not reflect any “sharp” money on the home dog as the line moved from -5.5+100 to -6-102.
I would say all other things being equal if I had to pick between two +5.5 home dogs …one that had 25% on the home dog and the other 50% it would be an easy decision. But for home dogs the public numbers alone do not produce a positive ev historically.
In the nba its my thought overall the money to be made is primarily on road dog setups. And as you can see from my picks…not many show up. At least using the methods I use.
A similar example tonight is Atl at Orlando. 83% of the public is on Atlanta -3. Not only that the line has move from +3-105 to +3-112. So we have some “smart money” that has moved the line towards the home dog. Now I might be inclined if this holds up to consider Orlando on the money line…but my other methods I use point strongly to Atlanta. Strong enough that if I had to bet the game I would lay the 3. But the public and line move is keeping me away from the game.
Tuesday was a very good day. We won our 1/2 unit play on under 132.5 with Mich st. Also we won both our 1/2 Unit NHL plays on Carolina +137 and Montreal +118. So a +3.55 unit day.
Also the nhl totals tracking plays went 1-0-1.
Today a full schedule but nothing stands out this morning.
Expect an update around 3:30 P.M. PST.
“Out of curiosity, what caused you to hold off on Jazz +6 tonight?”
Let me ask…what besides the public being 75% on Okl City did you like about the game? 25% alone on a home dog for me is not enough to make the game a play.