Wedn NBA Lean ( I do not bet these)
1st Half +3.5
One game tonight in college Football. Northern Ill has 81% of the public on them with the line opening at -2 and is now -3+105 On Pinnacle. On Cris -3 to -2.5.
My models show Northern Ill to be over valued. Also the weight of my variables point to Toledo. However there is one Variable that points to Northern Ill that prevents the game from being a play. At 19% however on the home dog I am going to put the game out as a lean:
Wedn NCAA FB Lean
Tuesday we lost our 1/2 Unit play on Cal St Fullerton +7. From the start they were never in the game. Our Lean on Kent St +7 was an easy cover with Kent St winning the game 44-13!
Nothing shows up this morning in College Hoops. Too early for NBA and NHL.
One College football game tonight. A bit too early but the game certainly has some possibilities. I will update a bit later with my comments on the game.
“I have a question for you regarding the Hilton contest. It seems to me you make five selections based on your normal handicapping, and don’t overly consider line movement between when the Hilton lines are released and the Sat deadline, correct? But doesn’t that mean you really have to be much much better than the field, when some people are going to play the game that was released in the contest at 2.5 or 3.5 but then crossed the three, every time, regardless of if it means the favorite or the dog? Thanks.”
Yes…I agree I don’t overly consider the line movement from the contest line to the line movements after the contest line is posted. However I do take a look at it and consider it into the entire scheme of things. I do not think using a system that is based upon getting a better line then the hilton line would work out all that well. It might be worth a half a percent. Line movements are tricky to interpret. You have Steam, sharp money, public money, books perceptions of public all to consider in trying to reach conclusions.
So…..my conclusion is that you are not losing a thing to the field. If anything if you have a solid handicapping technique their might be slight pick up.