Week 1 of Preseason NFL coming to an end today!

Saturday we had a 1/2 unit play in MLB with Baltimore +138 losing 2-7.

We also had 3 Big Move Games:

Houston +153
Tampa +140
Min -131

The Closing line:

Houston +137
Tampa +128
Min -138

All three moved our way with the top 2 having a big enough move for a middle. Very encouraging as I have filtered out several subsets on these.

One thing to note is where the Big Move Games are predictive of the direction of the line move they are only one variable I look at in deciding if the side has enough EV for a play.

In preseason NFL yesterday nothing developed yesterday that I could see as a positive EV opportunity.

Today I have not sent out any plays but I did send out early this morning 3 big move games.

I received the following email last night:

“Rick,
I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

Now for just a small amount of marketing before I sign off this morning:)

This is the last day to sign up for the football special. Tomorrow I will be taking all references to the special down. If you’re new to the site you can go back to the earlier 3 or 4 posts and get a good idea of the special. And if you still have any questions just send me an email. Direct messaging is not the best way to get ahold of me.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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