12:50 Update
Its shaping up to be a great day with my top pick Baltimore +10 covering easily unless something weird happens. My 4 setups in the NFL all look like easy wins. Bears +3.5 and Under on Jets, Atlanta and Baltimore.
My hilton picks look like at worst 3-1. If the jets can cover then 4-0. Its tied 20 20 with 2 min left.
I have one game left in the Hilton contest….
St Louis
Seattle
Betting is 62% on the home fav with the line moving contrary to the betting from -13.5 to -11.5. Variables strongly point to St Louis. Models point to Seattle. This game will be a watch only and hopefully I will be going for 5-0 today!!!
Two other afternoon games:
Jacksonville
New Orleans
Betting is 54% on New orleans with the line moving from -3.5 to -2. Models favor New Orleans and variables are neutral. Again a pass. If your looking at Jacksonville right now its a bit late to get on board as the numbers have pass 3.
Finally this afternoon
Green Bay
Arizona
Betting is 54% on the road dog Green bay with the line moving from -4.5 to -6. Variables favor Green Bay. Models are neutral. Also as most of you that have been reading this site know when the betting is mostly on the dog its a big red flag. But again this is a pass for me today.
Good luck
Saturday we went 2-2 on our plays for +.88 units. Bowl Games went 1-0, NBA 0-1, NHL 1-1 for +.88 units. We also had a setup in the NFL Under which lost.
We are at week 16 in the NFL and it has been a rather flat season for me. Typically I go on a nice run and am in contention for the top 50 in the hilton contest. Last year I made the top 50 out of over 1000 of the best handicappers. But this season I started off very slow and have made it back to 500:( Its very hard to pick 5 games a week! But its fun. On the other hand I am in another major contest where you only have to pick 2 games a week and am at 60% in the top 10.
If your a “sharp” bettor in the NFL this season you most likely are underwater! This has been the worst season I can remember for “sharp” bettors. And it just happens to coincide with College Football this season.
This week my picks are in the order I liked them at the time:
Baltimore +10
Bears +3
Jets +3
St Louis +13.5
Atlanta +6.5
Hilton Top 5
Denver
Pit
Min
Wash
NE
The top 5 went 3-2 last week and is 42-32-1 or 56.75%
This coincides with the public picks doing so well. The majority of participants in the Hilton contest are public bettors which in addition to it being a value added tournament there is extra money due to the fact of the way most make their picks. But still its no easy job to cash!
Hilton Bottom 5
Indy
San Diego
Oakland
Tenn
Bears
When you handicap you want to find yourself more with the bottom 5 then the top 5. If you do then you are on the right track with your methods.
% numbers this morning in the NFL
Pitt 82
KC 75
Carolina 73
New England 71
Houston 69
Buffalo 64
Seattle 62
Miami 60
Detroit 57
Jacksonville 57
Minn 56
Arizona 52
Tampa 51
Last week teams with over 60% went 7-1. The books got creamed. Sharps got destroyed. The public was patting themselves on the back (at least the ones that are still in action this season). Although only the NFL has bettors that never give up. I am not sure what it is about the game but its the one sport that attracts the most bettors. That is why the public numbers typically are very predictive.
But as we learned last week variance can be very cruel. And I have said this time and time again if you let variance break you then you are a fool! But your in good company as their are plenty of gamblers that hardly give variance a passing thought let alone give it the consideration it deserves.
Its interesting to observe poker players. Some get upset when they lose just one hand! Some keep track of how they are doing by the day! I had one player call me a few days ago and give me a day by day account of how he lost big..but got it back the next two days. And this is someone that has been around Vegas for years.
But poker is a another subject for another day.
Subscribers I will be sending out plays as always shortly before game times. If you wish to get on board to one of the best services available then hit the paypal button. I hope to see you with us.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
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