Week 17 NFL (Already?)

8:10 Update

An educational give and take from a subscriber this morning that should benefit all:

“Hello Rick,

Thank you for taking the time to continue to post your picks and answer questions on top. I was one of your subscribers that found a way to suffer a slight loss yesterday, but that was because I singed up too late to bet DePaul, and I did not bet Calgary (NHL). I did not bet Calgary because, at the time I signed up, I made a self-imposed rule to only bet if I could get your line or better. Indeed, I was able to get Penn State +7, which turned a loss into a push for me on that play. However, for your NHL plays you posted lines of +131 and +133, respectively.

I have access to four books (3 through Nevada casino mobile sport betting apps, one off shore), and the lines for those two games were +120 at two books and +125 at the other two, at the time you posted. The Winnipeg game ended up going against you, ultimately closing at +145 at some places, so I was able to bet that one at +140.

My questions are:

1. Would you mind sharing where you bet your NHL plays? Vegas books usually only post money lines in increments of 5, so I assume it is off shore somewhere.

2. If you post a line of +131 in NHL, would you consider it a profitable bet at +125? or did I make a good decision holding off on Calgary at that price?

3. With money lines, I usually bet to win 1 unit, I do not wager 1 unit. I figure, since money line dogs are higher variance plays, that this method is prudent. Do you agree? Or do you think it is better to continue to risk the same amount on money line dogs, as I would for a typical -110 wager? I assume you do, since this is how you are calculating your profit in the blog. My unit size is 1%, so I can stand some variance.

Hockey seems to bet your best sport at the moment. I’m worried I’m never going to be able to get your line since Vegas books charge so much juice on money lines, so I’m wondering, if that’s going to be the case, how best to proceed. I’d hate to miss out on the hockey plays. I assume this issue will arise in baseball as well.

Thank you for any feedback.”

“My Response:

1. I have a private book that in exchange for getting my plays gets me outs at some of the best lines available. The lines I post are Pinnacle lines at the time I post them.
2. In money line sports what you want is to find online books that put on 10c lines. This applies to the nhl and mlb. There are quite a few and you should be able to come up with 4 or 5. The rule should be to not take the worst of the worst line of the ones you are looking at. If you betting at a 20c book most likely you will miss a few of the NHL plays. So you need to get outs at 10c books. 20c is way too much vig to pay on money line sports.
3. You should bet size to lose 1 unit rather then win 1 unit in money line sports. Keep all bet sizing the same. At 1 % you should have very little problem with variance. so I would not worry about money line or spread betting differences. For instance the minute you take a view like that sure as day that’s when the money line sports will be the best…its weird how things work out that way. So make it easy and do not try to outguess things.
4. Now lets say your at a 20c book. The good news is many of these adjust their lines so much to the public betting that you can often times get on the dog the same as the money line. And in a few instances (not many) a better line.”

Saturday turned out to a very busy day with almost 100 college hoops games and every sport except baseball and womens nba in action. And I am not complaining I love days like that. Almost non stop thinking the entire day!

The day was a tad over break even when the smoke cleared. The final tally in the order of success NHL 2-0 +2.64 Units NBA 1-0 College hoops 3-4 Bowl Games 0-2.

Now there is a lesson in yesterdays games. We were down 3 units plus the vig going into the last 3 plays. And the last 3 plays were in the NBA and NHL. So if you avoided betting those or betting a smaller amount on those you ended up loser for the day. If you follow my advice in the Must Reading section above then you made money. In addition you were never concerned because you have turned a Adrenalin rush into a methodical money making endeavor.

Now you might ask why do I think that any one would not do what I suggest? I have been around gamblers for many many years. The one thing that the bulk of the gamblers have in common is as Axle Foley so eloquently put it “they will find a way to lose”. He actually said they have a desire to lose but I do not wish to open up that right now. And for you youngsters who do not know who Axle Foley is watch “The Gambler” with James Caan. You are in for a treat.

So back to the lesson being around gamblers its almost unreal how many conjure up all types of ways to turn winning into losing. I cannot say this enough in order to become a winning gambler you have to recognize this is part of your psyche , deal with it, and harness it into an obsessive desire to ONLY wager when you have the edge. Thats how I approach it and have been for years. No edge No wager for me. Now I am not a computer. And from time to time I find myself slipping into that abyss called the “the desire to gamble”. And when ever I do slip I get taught a lesson. But thats for another day:)

So save yourself some energy and learn. There is nothing anyone reading this site has done that I have not done myself or have seen others do. Everyone goes through it.

Almost forgot my setups in college hoops were a miserable 2-7-1. Another way to lose. I have said I do not bet on these. They are slight edges that you can use in your own handicapping as filters. But not as a stand alone reason to bet. The variance is sky high on these. Please follow my advice.

Now another busy day with the last week in the NFL. Let me say if I had to pick two weeks in the NFL that are the hardest to handicap its the first and last week. At least for me. But as always I try to adjust and with my picks this week have a little.

My Hilton picks in the order I liked them at the time:

Buffalo +3
Cleveland +10.5
Miami +10.5
Arizona -6.5
Denver -9

Historically home favorites are the way to go the final week in the NFL. But the caveat is the sample size is so small I do not give it the weight I give my other methods but I do give it a big of weight.

Another way to go the last week historically is to wager against must win teams. But again another small sample size and not only that can conflict with the first statement!

Hilton Top 5

Buffalo (I really do not like that)
Green Bay
Jets (much better)

The top 5 was 2-3 last week but 44-35-1 for the season. My condolences if you pulled the trigger this season and decided to fade them.

The bottom 5 this week:
San Diego

% numbers for today

Pitt 81
NE 74
Jets 72
Houston 72
Wash 70 (dog)
Giants 70
Det 68
Tenn 67 (dog)
St Louis 65
Carolina 63
Cinci 63
Green Bay 57
KC 53
Atl 51
San Diego 51 (dog)
Seattle 50

Reverse line moves

For subscribers I will post plays and setups shortly before game times. If your not a subscriber hit the paypal button on the upper right and join a group of handicappers that at the end of 2016 will be able to say I am in the 1% of handicappers that made money this year!!! Hope to see you on board.

twitter: rickjsportplays
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