Two games tonight:
Betting is +65% on the road favorite with the line moving from Mets -109 to San Fran -116. Models are neutral on the game. Variables favor the Mets, public betting slightly favors the Mets. My models tell me the game is still priced a bit under what it should be even with a .25c , move toward San Fran. Without the models showing value I am going to pass on the game
Betting is 78 % on the road favorite with the line moving from -7-110 to -7+103. Models slightly favor Georgia State, Variables are neutral, Public betting favors Arkansas State. In the past home dogs with <32% of the betting have done very well. However this has changed substantially over the last season or two and the edge is either absent or not near what it was. However with the models slightly favoring Georgia State I do not have to consider it so this game is a pass for me.
Tuesday we had no plays. This is the time of year where things slow up a bit with MLB winding down and College Baskets not having started yet. It’s a good time to go through your previous year and take a look where you can improve on things that did not quite go right this last year.
I periodically do that and it is amazing what I find reviewing the previous year’s plays and results. So I highly recommend it. Also As a subscriber when you do this and come up with issues you wish to discuss I am only an email away. There most likely is not an issue your encountering that I have not dealt with myself over the years. So please take advantage of it!!!
Going into week 6 in college football we are 8-11-1 for one unit sides. I have sent out a 1 unit play so far for this weekend in College Football.
Going into Week 5 in the NFL we are 7-2 for 1 unit sides. In addition, we are 2-5 for 1/2 unit totals.
Also in the Hilton NFL Super Contest my picks are 13-7 or a very respectable 65%!!! There are many times in the past I have been just a bit over 50% at this stage and went on a monster run to get into the hunt to cash. Nice to jump out with a good start this season. A monster run here would be very welcome, to say the least.
There are two games tonight. A college football game along with an MLB Playoff game. I will have some comments on both later this afternoon.
In the meantime, for those of you that started the MLB season and stuck through to the end, I have to say it must have been a very good educational experience of you are fairly new to sports betting.
Let me say there is no easy money here. No locks, bets of the year, guarantees. Merely a process to give you the best opportunity to consistently bet on positive EV games. Everything I do has been backtested along with having passed real-time testing. But again it is not easy money. You have to have a methodical bet sizing technique to be able to give yourself the best chance of making money betting on sports. Without that unfortunately, you have little chance to succeed. Just look around and see your friends that are losing consistently betting on sports. It’s a fact that at least 95% of sports bettors lose money betting.
So if you can consistently get in that 5% it should give you some satisfaction as few rarely make it. I am here not only to provide what I feel are positive EV plays but also to help guide you through this rather difficult learning process.
So again, any questions all you need to do is send me an email. I respond rather quickly.
Also if you have been following this site and wish to join us all you need to do is pick the subscription option of your choice under the PayPal menu. All options have a 3-day free trial. And include all sports I cover during your subscription period.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks