We are heading into week 16 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 42-34-1 with three games left today for week 16 Picks. That is 55.2 % picking five games each week. A solid showing but to cash you have to hit over 60%. Week 16 started out good with a win on the Rams and a tie on TB.
In College football, the bowl games have started and my first bowl pick was a loss with Alcorn St +3. They scored over 40 pts and still lost by 20:)
That brings College football season to date to 31-23-1 or 57.4%.
We had 1 NFL play Last week with Jacksonville +6.5 and it was a winner. Yesterday we had 2 NFL plays. Rams +7 a winner and the Rams Under was a loser. That brings my season to date record for plays in the NFL to 19-17.
Lesson of the week:
I am going to talk about Variance again. We lost 4.5 units the last 7 days or so, and I had some emails from a few subscribers that elicited some concern:) All I can say is -4.5 units is a blip. It is not even worth mentioning. When we get to a 20 to 30 unit downswing then you can proudly say you survived a real downswing. Those are the downswings that eliminate the bettors that have no money management skills or have unrealistic expectations.
I do not even think of downswings anymore, as I have learned its all part of the process. Now, few people are trained like I am in dealing with downswings. But 16 years playing full time at the limit poker tables in Vegas, and double that for sports betting daily and I can tell you about downswings:) In the end, it is all about probability theory. At least as long as you are a positive EV gambler. If you are not then it will not matter.
Make no mistake Variance is one of the most difficult battles successful gamblers have to fight. But once you get your mind right, you are on your way to winning it.
My Westgate NFL Contest Picks this week are:
TB +3 ( Push)
Rams +7 (Win)
Last week the Westgate Top 5 went 3-2 bring their record to 39-34-2. That is a rarity for them as usually, the top 5 is something you want to fade. I assume this is a random event rather than a change of trend.
The Westgate top 5 this week are:
I faded two of the top 5 and am with them on Tenn.
The bottom 5 this week are:
Pit and the Jets play each other. I am on Miami
The updated political odds this week:
Trump was impeached last week, so that takes that wager off the table, but so far there is no indication the articles of impeachment will be sent to the Senate. There has been a lot of speculation on this decision. Almost too much to even consider at this early juncture. So, it’s best to just wait and see what Pelosi’s scheme is here, as I assure you this was not a random decision. They have something in mind.
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 10/90 +1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows. There is virtually no chance of a conviction in the Senate. There are a lot of rumors going around, but, ignore them and watch the odds. If they start moving, then perhaps you can give the rumors some credence. Otherwise its all spin.
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 89/11 +4 Pt (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs
Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having a very slight edge in the odds. This has been narrowing for some time now.
Control of the House after 2020: Dems 72/28 +2 Pts ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet.
Control of the Senate after 2020: 70/30 Republicans. +2 pts I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 47/53 +1 Pts ( A new High)
Warren: 6/94 -4 Pts
Biden: 22/78 +3 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 – 2 Pts
Sanders 15/85 -1 Pts
Bloomberg 4/96 -1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 – 4 Pts
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 37/63 -3 Pts I laid 38/62 (Staying right around where I got into the wager.)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks