We are heading into Week 17 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 44-35-1 or 55.7%. The Tie give me a half-point, so I sit at 44.5. A long way from 60%:(. I went 3-1-1 last week and even with a 5-0 day today I would be out of the money.
In college football this week my bowl picks have been dreary.
This week I had Iowas State +3.5 (L), Memphis +6.5 (L), Miami -7(L). So an 0-3 week bringing my record in college football to 31-26-1 or 54.4%. That is a 4.2% ROI.
For NFL Plays last week we had Seattle U51(W), Cleveland U 49(W), Jets +3.5(w) Tenn +3.5 (L). That gave us a 3-1 week in the NFL last week for plays bringing the season to date to 22-18 or 55%. We got off to a slow start in the NFL but it has now overtaken college football this season.
Both are profitable, which has been typical over the years.
In the All Spread contest where I pick every game against the spread, I sit at 132-108-0 or 55%. That is an incredible number:) Beating college football plays and also tieing my Westgate record. If you beat every one of these you would be +13.2 Units:) I send these picks out to subscribers.
The lesson of the week:
I am going to again concentrate on Variance. We are in our worst downswing in a while, and it actually has not been that bad, it just seems worse then what it is. Whenever I go into a downswing I always recommend reading the must-read portion of this site. It will get your thinking right.
The downswings separate the professionals from the part-time bettors. The professionals expect downswings and have it built into their money management techniques. Myself, I view them as an academic amusement more than anything else.
I remember when I had sat down at a limit poker game and went through 4 racks in about an hour. I had had an incredible run of cards and lost with every hand. (you do not lose much money when you are not getting hands). The guy next to me, a good friend who had a similar mindset as mine when it comes to variance, looked at me and asked, “What is your downside limit”?
I asked him, what is the difference if you go through 10 racks in a session or in 4 weeks? If you are playing well and the game is good it is merely variance. He answered that he agreed, but said that after two racks he tends to lose his temper so he quits:)
That illustrates as best I can my mindset on gambling. If you have a positive EV, you weather the swings. If you cannot do that, then no need to even get started in this endeavor.
It is not for everyone, and few can handle day after day. I enjoy it otherwise I would not be doing it. My methods have withstood over 15 years of posting plays online. We have had our ups and downs but in the end, we end up on the plus side.
Your biggest enemy once you have a positive EV is yourself. You always have to fight human nature. That is what gets most. Human nature kicks in and finishes most off:)”
Now that might be the last on variance for awhile. But its the most important subject of all.
My picks for the Westgate this week are:
Week 17 has a lot of different considerations then the first 15 weeks. Week 16 is sort of a transition week.
I will go over in detail each game today with subscribers a bit later.
In the Westgate Supercontest, the top 5 picks went 2-2-1 last week bringing its record to 41-36-2. This is an outperforming season for them this year, as typically they are hard-pressed to break even.
The top 5 this week is:
I am with them on the Giants, fading them with Houston and the Chargers.
The bottom 5 this week are:
I am on the charger in the Bottom 5.
Now let’s see how the political odds have changed this week:
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 9/91 -1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows.
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 No Change (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs
Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago.
Control of the House after 2020: Dems 73/27 No Change ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time. Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)
That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.
Control of the Senate after 2020: 72/28 Republicans. No Change I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 47/53 -1 Pts
Warren: 6/84 No Change
Biden: 24/76 +1 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 No Change
Sanders 18/84 +1 Pts
Bloomberg 4/86 -2 Pt
Clinton 2/98 No Change
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 38/62 -1 Pts I laid 38/62 ( My wager is right at where I bought into it. My plan to lay it off with a 20% quick gain is not working out so well) I think Durham will bring indictments soon, and that should give this wager a big boost. I plan on laying it off with a nice gain once that happens. Perhaps in the next month.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks