Westgate NFL Super Contest picks for week 2 and a sports betting story

Saturday we had a good day in College football. 4 plays with our two 1 unit plays both winning and our 1/2 unit plays going 1-0-1.

Our 1 unit plays were Vanderbilt +4  winning 14-7 and Kentucky +6 winning 23-13. Both dogs won outright!

1/2 unit plays were Memphis +2.5 winning 48-45 and Florida -6 with a tie 26-20.

We also had 3 leans and went 1-2 on the leans.

In MLB there was 1 overnight with  Seattle +161 losing 6-8.

So far today we have two 1 unit plays.

We now are in week 2 of the NFL and so far I could not be off to a better start for the season.

My Westgate NFL Super Contest picks are 5-1 with four more going today. And our plays in the NFL are 2-0 both 1/2 unit plays.

Top 5 in the NFL Contest this weekend:

Tenn

Pit

GB

NE

Dal

The bottom 5

Hou

Cin

SF

NYJ

NYG

My picks this week:

Indy +7

New Orl +6.5

Bears +7

Houston +6.5  (winner)

Atlanta -3

I am on the other side of 2 of the top 5 picks in the contest.

Now how did the top 5 and bottom 5 do last week?

Top 5 did not disappoint going 0-5 while the bottom 5 went 3-2.

Being a contrarian paid off last week.

Looking over the top 5 again this week all are favorites and 4 are public % favorites with the other at 50/50.

So again this week “sharp bettors” are absent from the top 5. If there is value in the contest this is where it is at. The bulk of the participants are public favorite bettors. The problem is the 8% they take off the top.

I doubt handicapping skill can overcome that in the long run. But for me its entertainment with the idea that variance will kick in and get me to the finish line:)

I would love to have the bet I made a few years ago with another poker player.

Poker players love to needle others at the table. Especially the players that win most of the time. So, I had a player needling me on my handicapping.

I then made him the proposition that he picks 5 games and I will pick 5 games in the NFL each week for 1,000 a week.

Now, most players at that point would back off. But this player doubled down saying he would just fade my 5 picks each week for 1000 a week.

So I gladly accommodated him. An hour later at the table, he started getting worried and made the comment that I had to have my 5 picks in on Wednesday. I told him that was not part of the deal but if he layed me 1100 to 1000 each week I would do that.

Much to my surprise, he agreed. Which, I could hear an old-time bookie who I have been playing with for years say ” How did Rick get that much the best of it”:)

Well, the story is not over. When you make wagers like this you should expect to get razzed if you are losing. And of course, I started off 0-3. Never fails. And I got razed every week.

But then the worm turned and when the smoke clears I ended up winning 5,000 from him. And to add to the win I offered to cancel the last 2 weeks and he agreed. I would have lost both weeks:)

To the person’s credit, he did not whine one bit. And I give him that. It takes some character to take a beating and refrain from whining. Not many gamblers have that type of character.

I did not offer to cancel because I wanted to lock in a gain but I was in the top 10 in the contest and I did not want anyone knowing my picks the last 2 weeks. All for naught as I cratered:)

OK, now where was I before I digressed:)

I had best get back to handicapping and see if I can come up with anymore plays today in the NFL.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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