Things really got busy yesterday as we have the NHL, NBA, NCAA FB, NCAA BB and the NFL to handicap.
I had forgotten what a Saturday of handicapping both College football and hoops entailed:)
Let me give you a quick rundown of yesterday
1/2 unit College football sides 1-2
1/2 unit College football totals 1-1
College Football sides new leans 0-1
1/2 Unit NBA 0-1
1 Unit NHL Side 0-1
1/2 Unit NHL Side 1-0
NHL Total New Lean 2-0
1/2 Unit Ncaa Total 0-1
Not a stellar day. I will have a give a breakdown of all sports when I have some time but of course you can always look at the spreadsheets that I update daily:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AkTqdb-ikYsN6qaTXTX7w9PgQaW6IvNukLGokgch6M/edit#gid=0
I received an emal last night I thought would be instructive:
“Hi Rick
Please don’t take this the wrong way, I’m not second-guessing you. I’m a recreational sports bettor who wagers relatively small amounts, but I’m also trying to learn.
The opening line was FSU +19. We obviously got very unlucky at the end with Clemson scoring a touchdown. But what I don’t understand is when the opening line comes out the models and variables, for the most part, will remain the same. We don’t know what the betting percentages will do over a week. Does it make sense to bet earlier in the week, even a smaller amount when the number might be better? I realize the line could have gone the other way to 21.
With the Florida game, the line moved from 9 to 4.5. Even though variables, models, and public betting aligned at 4.5 are we giving up too much with such a big movement against us?
Thanks”
My Response:
“I know it can look that way but variables do change the line and the %. It is not static. But you are correct the models pretty much stay the same. But you cannot win only betting the models. On the Florida game, the line opened at +7.5 at both Pinn and Cris. Not sure where you saw a +9.5. But, sometimes the line moves are so great it takes it out of a play. In this instance, it did not the way I handicap.
There is a tradeoff to everything. Ideally, it would be great to pin things down based on the opening line. But my methods do not allow me to do that. So sometimes we lost a game we would have won on the opening line, but sometimes we will get a better line and it will work out.
As far as Clemson, we had the game won, It was an unlucky turn of events where Clemson decided to not run out the clock. A lot of happy Clemson bettors! Also last week we lost because of a safety with almost no time left.
That’s sports betting. It’s like getting beat by one outer at the poker table. It happens all the time.
I have been doing this so long that I do not even give these things a thought. Just a passing laugh on occasion, that reminds me why I use very tight money management when I wager.
But I know it can be frustrating. I have been there and done that.
Hope that explains it. ”
If anyone else has any questions feel free to ask. This sports betting is no easy proposition. However, what you get here is 1. Transparency, 2. A reasonable chance of learning something about handicapping 3. positive ev plays and 4. the grind sports betting can be.
I know you read about the services that produce 66% winners every year. Or guaranteed plays. Sports betting does not work that way. What you experience here is what sports betting is like. You get the ups and downs, and learn if you do not have a system to bet size you will find it very hard to win betting sports! Read that over and over again until you believe it. As it is a RickJ given:)
Now lets get on to the NFL:
Last week in the Westgate NFL Supercontest I went 2-2-1 bringing my record to 24-20-1. I have a lot of work to do now. 54.5% will not do it:)
My picks this week are:
Denver +7.5
Houston +12
Tampa Bay +2.5
Atlanta -3
Buffalo +3
What is scary is I like the first 4. Typically its only 1 or 2 that I really like and then its a process of elimination.
The Westgate top 5 is staying true to form a 2-3 week bringing its record to 16-29 or an amazing 35%.
The top 5 this week for the Westgate Contest are:
Buffalo
Jacksonville
Washington
Rams
Jets
I am on the other side of 2 of the top 5 and with the top play. That is not a good sign for buffalo:(
The bottom 5:
Arizona
Carolina
Seattle
Houston
Detroit
I am on 1 of the bottom 5.
So far today I have sent out 2 plays.
Let’s see if I can get my contest picks back in gear. After a very vast start, I have stumbled a bit. One more stumble and its lights out:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
