Last week in the Westgate NFL Supercontest I went 2-3 bringing my record in the contest to 31-33-1.
After a very promising start, I have plummeted back to just below 500. And it has been quite a nose dive after really the fastest start I have ever had in the contest.
My contest picks for this week are :
Cleveland +3
Miami +11
Denver Pick
Jacksonville -2.5
Giants +4
Let’s see if I can get back on track this week and give a respectable final few weeks of the contest.
The Westgate Top 5 this week are:
Phil
Minn
Seattle
Green Bay
Baltimore
The had a big week last week going 5-0. It was long overdone as they are now 28-37-0 or 43.07%.
I am fading one of the top 5 this week.
The bottom 5 this week are :
Bears
Rams
Bills
Giants
Chiefs
I am with 2 of the bottom 5.
So far today I have sent out 2 plays, all carryovers from last week in the NFL.
I plan on doing a write-up very soon about the last few months, in particular, College Hoops.
We have had 3 great seasons in college hoops. The pattern has been that we started out very strong and then winded down to the end of the season with nice plus units.
This season has been dramatically different in College hoops. The November Unders were miserable, and they have been the steadiest the last 3 years. In addition, December has not started out well in college hoops either.
So what does this all mean in college hoops? Not a lot right now. It’s hard to draw conclusions however it is the first drawdown we have had for some time in sports betting. I have to say, I had been surprised how long it had been, typically you get these every few years.
Well, we are getting one now, no mistake about it. The only thing I am doing a bit different this season is the 1/2 unit new plays. And they have been so-so. Nothing like they tested out to be or even how they performed real-time prior to my making them 1/2 unit plays.
However, it’s still too early to tell on these. What has been notable is the NHL Totals. But we have had so few plays, no conclusions can be drawn there also.
The bright spot has been the NBA. So far it has been as solid as I have seen in the NBA since I have been handicapping.
The question is when does one decide that there is no positive EV after successfully handicapping for years. It’s a very similar question that professional poker players ask time and again after a severe bad run.
In poker, its a bit easier to discern as unless your mental psyche has changed dramatically (the variable that allowed you to become a positive EV player) it’s typically related to the player makeup that you play against. And if your objective, you can quantify that aspect of the games.
But in sports handicapping, you do not have that luxury available to you. Its a 0 sum game, where you’re up against the books, and really the other bettors who move the lines. They are the “sharps” and the “punters”.
In addition, you have the factor of the significance of the makeup of those two as to weighing the effect of various line moves in relation to the % of bets on the game.
And then you have to consider how the Books weigh this into the equation.
In a simplistic example, years ago the books knew what side the “punters” would be on. And of course, they made sure that the “punters” was not only on the wrong side but they were taking way worst of what the real line should be. For years, the books took advantage of the punters that way. And as a professional handicapper, it was easy to see the trail and take advantage of it.
But, now, the “sharps” are a very significant part of the equation. And that has muddied up the waters as to what was once obvious. If the books get out of line, they get pounded by the “sharps”
And then you also have the “sharps” front-running the public as they know that other sharp bettors are lurking ready to pounce on lines. That is why you are seeing with a lot of regularity the line move opposite to the public % even at 20 to 30 percent early.
So, what I am saying is that it has become much more complex than what handicapping was years ago. Years ago it was almost too early:) Now, its a full-time job to pull some EV out of the movements we are seeing.
One more example of this and then I will get back to work. In the NBA, reverse line moves have very little significance anymore. To the contrary, on the sides, it’s best to get better than the opening line. This is not a minor variable in the NBA. Its one of the few very reliable simplistic factors around right now.
Of course, you still have to put the models and public % into the equation, but all things being equal reverse line moves work against you on NBA Sides.
I just wanted to give everyone an oversight into what is going on right now. And also assure you that I am fully aware, more then you can imagine, of the various aspects that are changing in the sports betting world.
I plan on writing up a bit more very soon on this as I think of everything I have neglected this aspect of the site as a tradeoff for the increased work I have been doing handicapping the games.
I plan on getting back on track with my thoughts on the days handicapping and other elements I observe from day today.
If anyone has any questions, do not hesitate to send me an email or contact me via Skype.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja
