Saturday turned out to be a busy day. In college football, we had one 1 unit play on BYU +10 covering 13-20. We also had a 1/2 unit total on UNLV under 59 winning 31-23.
But then we had our 1/2 unit side plays:(
In College FB they went 0-4. In the NBA 0-1 and in the NHL 0-1.
So a -1.5 unit day plus the Vig.
We also had a lean in College FB on Georgia Southern +5.5 that covered.
Now let’s get to the NFL!
In the Westgate NFL Supercontest after a 1-4 week last week I am sitting at 22-18 or 55% heading into the 2nd half of the season. I had a blistering start but have stumbled a bit heading into the halfway point. I need a great 2nd half to get into the top 50.
My picks this week in the Westgate NFL Supercontest are:
Indy was a game where the line was way off. That happens from time to time in the Contest as the Westgate NFL Supercontest lines are put out late Wednesday night. I typically do not let that influence me but in this instance, the difference was so great and I am sitting at 55%. So best not take a view yet.
The Westgate top 5 last week was true to form going 2-3 with a season record of 14-26 or 35%. That is an incredible number. The question is, is it variance or that the bulk of the entrants are not very good handicappers. I think a combination of the two. As this occurs almost every year.
The Westgate top 5 for today are:
I am on 2 of the top 5 and fading 1 of the top 5.
The bottom 5 this week is:
I am on 2 of the bottom 5.
I received an email the other day on why the bulk of the picks are dogs. And that is a good question.
Historically the public is a favorite and over bettor. Years ago this was so slanted that it was almost a joke. The lines would take off, especially in college sports to unbelievable moves.
But things have changed a bit with the influx of “sharps”. And even casual bettors are catching on to things like reverse line moves and public betting numbers. Things I have been talking about for many years now on this site.
So, what has happened is the edge is much smaller than it has been. Especially if you wait until game time to wager on the contrary public play.
It used to be you could wait right up to the last minute and get the best number. Now things have changed to where you have figure out when to wager before the “sharps” start pounding the game.
Last year it was several hours before game time. Now, it’s even earlier than that in many instances. And in some, as we have seen in college football the “sharps” start pounding the game right from the start. That’s why you see 2 pts moves when the public % is less than 25%.
Now, back to the original question. There is still an edge fading the public. So if you’re going to handicap a game would you rather start with a 1% edge or a 1% disadvantage? By handicapping the dogs and the unders, in most instances that is what it comes down to.
College Hoops starts in 5 days. Hard to believe I know. And that is the time of the year when things get much crazier for me. With sometimes up to 100 games a day to take a look at, my time spent handicapping goes up geometrically.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks