What are the odds of a senate tax bill vote by year end? How will the stock market react?

Its still about the tax bill. The stock market is even an hour before the open.

Oil and Silver down , everything else around the 0 line.

I am exiting IBB shortly after the open this morning. GLD had a big day Friday and we are looking good on that trade.  XNCR has been rebounding lately, if we get biotech turned around this stock will most likely soar.

I am watching WEAT again for a bottom reversal trade. Other than that things are pretty quiet.

I have been slowly buidling up a portfolio to hold at least for the next 2 to 3 months. Last time I did that, we had the debt crisis and the lowering of the U.S. credit rating:)  So I am going to have another try at what tends to be a good time to be long in the markets.

The odds of a vote in the Senate on a tax cut bill is 55 to 45 in favor. The idea is they will not vote unless they have the 50 votes.  My opinion is that the odds are more like 5 to 1 against a vote in the Senate by year end.

Its hard to imagine that the Senate republicans will do that to themselves but we are beyond what is good for the U.S.  Its more what is good for the special interests along with a goal by some to undermine the White House.

I know I am a cynic but that is how I view it. Like I said, 5 to 1 against:)  We will see.

In addition, things are heating up on the special counsel front. I have no idea how that is going to end up. I do not think the country can stand much more chaos, and the financial markets as we have seen is very attuned now to the reality of the hostile political environment. I suspect them to get more so as we get closer to the end game on this.

So you have on the one hand the best time of the year for the markets vs extreme political chaos. Which will win out?  Let me know when you figure it out:)

We are on a pretty good roll on my opening day trades. Something like 7 to 1 winners. Not big gains or big losses as these are very short term scalp trades. Typically my trade size is 30 to 40 thousand per trade. And I look to pick up a few hundred on the trade. I can do that with my trade costs at 4.00 round turn.

If you do not wish to put that amount up per trade you can look at the weekly options. Although, that is a bit tougher as the spreads can be wide and the commision on a 10 lot to me is 24.00 round turn. Much higher than an outright purchase of the equity.

I will be around this morning for the open to share a day trade and some comments for the first 30 to 60 min. Just head to @rickjswings and you can follow along.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks



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