About a month ago the odds were 5 to 2 that President Trump would finish his first term. My analysis ended up, that I felt the odds were closer to 100 to 1 in favor and this was a significant overlay.
As of this morning, the odds are still sitting closer to 3 to 1. And I have little doubt it will keep moving higher. I still think this is about as good a wager as you are going to find right now either in politics or sports betting for that matter:)
Lets take a look at another wager that I assume many have an interest in. The odds of Trump being impeached his first term sits at 55 to 45 that he will not be impeached. This only covers the house vote which requires 51% for a vote of impeachment.
To try to figure out value on this is not quite as easy as it looks:) After all, the calls for impeachment have been steady since he took office, there is still a special counsel hard at work, and the Democrats have a solid majority in the House.
In addition, Articles of impeachment were filed the very first day the Democrats took control of the House.
So logically you would think that 55 to 45 against is a bit strange for something that at first glance looks like a certainty:)
The house makeup is 235 Democrats and 197 Republicans, which leaves the Dems with a 38 vote advantage. But its not that easy.
First the Democrat party in the House has many factions. You have the blue dog Democrats which consist of about 27 members. The Progressive wing has about 70 members, The new Democrats which is more centrist but not quite as centrist as the Blue dogs.
The presidential candidates so far except for maybe 1 or 2 are from the Progressive wing.
So What conclusions can you draw from this as to the likelihood of a vote for impeachment coming to the floor and then winning.
Lets start out with the idea that impeachment in the House is a pure political animal. Its not until it gets to the Senate for Trial that the law starts to get considered. But, the Democrats have a major thing to consider, that being the 2020 elections.
When the Republicans made the mistake of impeaching Clinton it cost them big in the next election. Make no mistake Pelosi knows that and will not bring the vote to the floor unless there is substantial evidence. Which to this date there is none.
In addition, I am not quite sure, except for the Progressive wing that there is a taste for impeachment. Not because they do not want Trump out but because they want to stay in office in 2020. So even though they have a 37 vote majority, it might be close.
On the other hand human nature what it is, may will drive them down that road. I have little doubt that there will be at least enough out of the Mueller report that will give them an impetus to move toward impeachment. Perhaps not on collusion, but Obstruction.
Afterall, all you need do is read Sidney Powell’s book “License to Lie” to see the type of prosecutors that make up the Mueller team. Combine that with the Text messages of the FBI, its pretty clear that Mueller was the insurance policy designed to remove Trump from office.
Now, there is a train of thought that Mueller may well be a white hat, and that indictments are coming down soon taking out all the players in this coup, up to the highest levels of government. It’s possible but I am a skeptic of that theory at this point.
Putting all of this together my thought is the Democrats are going to end up impeaching Trump before his term is up. I do not think they have the good sense to restrain themselves. Schiff and Nadler are in full investigative mode for one reason. To get rid of Trump.
Too much money has been spent, too much money is at risk for them not to take the bait. And last but not least crimes have been committed, and not by Trump. Trump staying in office leave many exposed to some serious time. So if I had to bet this I would take the 45 to 55 odds on this one.
The value? Not near as good as laying the 5 to 2 that Trump finishes his term. But I would put the odds at a solid 2 to 1 that the House impeaches Trump.
These types of situations are not as easy to figure as handicapping sports. There are assumptions you have to make in order to come up with a number. My main assumption is that the goal has been from the start to get rid of Trump. And with that in mind, 55 to 45 against seems very optimistic.
So, I would take the 45 to 55 on a 2 to 1 shot. Not a bad overlay. Its only February and things are going to get crazier as each day progresses.
But remember, the person that operates the best in chaos is Trump. He maintains a steady head, while the others around him are literally going insane. If it does get that far there is a snowballs chance in Hell they will get a 2/3rd vote in the Senate to convict. As with 33 Republicans senators up for re-election in 2020, it would be political suicide to vote to convict.
As Trump so appropriately put it when he won the election ” This politics is a complicated business”:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks