Its been awhile since I have posted on political odds and this morning seemed like a good time as I received the following email:
Great site. I was having a heated conversation this morning whether Trump used the word “shithole” in his immigration meeting. My buddy is adamant that he did and I have my doubts. Have you seen any odds on that or what is your opinion?”
“I, of course, have no idea of what really happened in that meeting. Neither does anyone else unless they were in the room. But your question got me thinking what each of the participants in the room has said on the subject.
I came across this article that gives a reporting of who was in the room and what was said:
Then I started doing some research myself and it appears what the article is reporting is fairly accurate.
So, to me, it looks like the only person making the claim that Trump used that word is Durbin. No one else who was in the room has made that claim, including the other Democrats in the room.
It looks to me like you have 3 Republican denying it was said, you have Grahm who gave some vague statement that he admonished Trump but never confirmed that word was used, and the remaining Democrats are silent. And of course, Trump denies it.
So looking at it logically, and only on what I am able to discern from the article and research, the odds are about 2.5 to 1 that he did not make that statement.
Its basically Durbin against Trump with no one else confirming what Durbin said is accurate. And 3 other people in the room denying it happened.
But, these types of analyses get complicated as you have to factor in politics. Both sides have a history of gross misrepresentation what it comes to politics.”
The other odds that I find interesting:
Odds are now almost 2 to 1 that the Democrats will take back control of the House. I view the odds at even money now. I had originally thought them closer to 2 to 1 against but it seems sentiment is shifting a bit. It’s hard to tell though as the polls cannot be relied upon.
The odds of a government shutdown on Jan 22nd are 3 to 1 against a shutdown. That seems about right to me. Neither side benefits from a shutdown, particularly the Democrats.
The odds of Ryan winning the primary are no 7 to 2 in favor of him winning. This has been jumping around a lot and got to even money a few weeks ago. I think its too high. I say 2 to 1 in favor of him winning the primary. The odds can only go down not up from here. A few bad moves by Ryan and he could again be considering not running again.
Party to win the white house in 2020 is 3 to 2 in favor of the Democrats. I do not see that, considering the two front-runners in the party for the nomination are Sanders and Harris. I think the odds are no more than even money, perhaps the Republicans a slight favorite, not more than 2 to 1 at this point.
A few others that look a little off:
Heller 3 to 2 to win Nevada primary. I say 2 to 1 against. Manchin 15 to 1 to win the West Virginia primary. I say no more than 5 to 1 and perhaps closer to 3 to 1.
Finally, odds of a dream back by Mar 31st is 4 to 1 against. I say 20 to 1 against. The votes are not there and the idea of a compromise has been lowered significantly the last few days.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks