What crosscurrents are facing the Stock Market in January?

The stock market is hovering around the 0 mark 40 min before the open.

Of note,  Financials strong. Metals, TLT, IBB  positive. Oil negative.

Overall, a slightly positive bias.

As I have been saying seasonality is extremely strong right now. This lasts until  January 4th typically. These are historical trends and on any given year anything can happen.  But its still nice to have seasonality on your side for swing trades.

GLD my only system trading going now I have shared is starting to look good. We had a gain, that dipped into negative territory, but now has turned positive again.

TUR has been good from the very start and we are now sitting on a 7.5% gain in this bottom reversal trade.

TLT a mean reversion trade is still off a bit but I suspect we will be in positive territory after today. The only thing is that we are not that far away from an exit on this trade. So it might be out today.

XNCR is hanging around. But when biotech takes off I expect this stock to have a nice run to the upside.

It’s not that easy to find swing trade setups here. My scans have yielded nothing this morning that looks attractive to me. If we get a down day today I expect a few stocks will start showing up for a swing trade.

As far as the day trades, I was intent on finding one yesterday but Tradestation crashed 10 min before the open. I spent at least an hour on the phone getting things straightened out. Hopefully, the platform is working correctly now. It’s a pretty buggy platform.

Not much news to speak of. Perhaps, the political alarmists are taking some time off for the holidays getting ready for the Presidents 2nd year.  I am confident that with the political types ingenuity they will have plenty of surprises in store for all of us.

One thing is certain, however, the dysfunction in D.C. will not end anytime soon. I suspect it will get much worse before it gets better.

So for next year, we have some very positive forces behind the market. The tax cuts will take hold. The sharp decrease in regulations will also have a positive effect. Then you have the repatriation of corporate assets coming back into the country.

It’s hard to imagine the stock market not having a good year next year with that environment.

On the other hand, the big negatives are the political dysfunction in D.C. and the geopolitical tensions that do not seem to be diminishing at the moment.

And then we have the wild card in the special counsel. I have heard many different theories on how that is going to end up. The theories range from Mueller is working with Trump to get at the corruption in D.C. to Trump is heading to prison.

The remarkable thing to me is how certain everyone is in their beliefs:)   One thing however that is certain is that the IG report will be out mid-January and that will set off some fireworks. The prevailing view is that the IG report will be very informative regarding the corruption that is prevalent in D.C.

In addition, you can count on each party getting the spin ready before the report is released.

The bottom line is to expect market volatility in January with all the crosscurrents. Almost forgot, DACA is one of the first issues Congress will tackle when they return which happens to tie into the debt ceiling.

I should be around this morning at the open. Come join me @rickjswings.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks


Skype: riccja

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