On Monday we had two 1/2 unit plays in the NHL and won them both a good day as a sports bettor!
Chicago Under 5.5-115 won 3-1 and Vegas under 5.5 +105 won 2-0.
So far today I have sent out no plays.
I have mentioned a few times before what separates the one unit plays from the 1/2 unit plays.
It might be a good idea to go over this in a bit more detail.
First of all, the concept of fooled by randomness is always prevalent. Patterns can be seen in any set of data if you look hard enough. So the idea is to sort through the mess of data and come up with patterns that can be reliable enough to wager on.
I read a good article this morning:
This is pretty simplistic but gives you a good idea of some of the considerations in coming up with ideas that might produce positive EV results.
I test quite a few ideas of the course of a year. At any one time, I might have 50 to 100 on the backburner waiting to see how the first year of real-time exposure pans out. Almost without exception, 95% of them prove out to be worthless.
The small % that survives are typically 1/2 unit plays for the next season. Of those, some do not make it and are dropped. But the small few that do produce over 55% winners real time for two years become one unit plays.
Now, this is not hard and fast. There is some judgment involved. The reasoning has to be logical, at least logical in a sports handicapping sense. Remember, that is not the Punter’s logic but the professional gambler’s logic:)
In addition, I use another filter that has weathered the test of time. I rarely wager on a method that does not improve as the % of betting on the team decreases. So a solid system should improve to some degree as the % of betting on the team goes from 100% to 0%.
My initial threshold is 49%. If I do not see a dramatic improvement in the results when reducing the % to 49% I typically through the method out. For me there is just too much chance that randomness has come into play as my assumption in handicapping is that as a general rule the greater the % bet on a team the more likely hood there is EV on the other side.
You will come across a lot of methods that look great regardless of the % bet on the team. I steer clear of those. As in any universe of games, there will always be a subset like this. That’s the way the bell curve works!
So, as an example, let’s look at the two totals in the NHL last night.
If you are a subscriber you know that totals in the NHL are few and far between.
But let’s take a look at the graph of the returns since this method was put into real-time:
This is what I like to see. The first year of real-time was great. This year was even better. But it’s not a straight-up graph but the downdrafts are minimal.
So most likely the 1/2 unit plays on the totals I used last night next season will be one unit plays as it will have weather 2 years of real-time testing.
I have been getting a lot of questions about how I do things. Typically more in a downswing:) But that’s just human nature. I tend to be the same way.
If anyone has any questions please do not hesitate to let me know. I am available on either Skype or [email protected] My username on Skype is riccja
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks