Markets are gapping down this morning with QQQ leading the way at -.5% 20 min before the open.
Of note, financials weak, metals mixed, oil strong, TLT positive.
Overall a negative bias heading into the open. Sometimes you can get a gap down and still have a positive bias when other sectors diverge from the indexes.
I want to see how breadth looks during the first 15 min of trading as that usually gives you a clue on the probability of how the day is going to pan out.
The market is strong but due for a pullback here. There has been quite a run up the last week or so.
I have not been trading much the last week as I have other things to take care of right now and I am not a big BO trader when the markets are overbought.
I did put on a trade yesterday. 1000 shares of UUP at 24. This is 1/2 a position. If the dollar pulls back I might put on the 2nd half depending on how things look.
This is not a day trade. These trades if not stopped out can go on for months if you get them correct. We will see. I do not get many of these types of trades.
The dollar has been plunging but it looks to me like we might have a bottom. It’s a double bottom formation with a nice RSI divergence. Right now the stop is the 20 day MA on the 240 Min Chart. However, I am flexible on that depending on what I see if we pull back.
Not much new on the political or geopolitical front. Same BS day in and day out now. I think the markets are used to it.
Of course, the rhetoric is getting out of control when Senator Gutierrez called General Kelly a liar and some other choice words because he happens to have a different point of view.
Regardless of where you are on the issues on immigration and DACA, Kelly has served his country and also lost a son who also served his country. It saddens me to see the personal attacks on people that are of the highest integrity.
Now, personal attacks between politicians do not bother me so much as that is the way the game is played. But Kelly has no ulterior motives here, only to serve his country as best he can, which he has done his entire life.
To think that no one in Congress has condemned this attack speaks to how far down Congress has fallen, particularly the Senate. That must be why they have a 15% well-deserved approval rating. They are no longer representatives of the people, only themselves and special interests.
This means for the markets that at any time, because of the dysfunctional politics in the U.S. now anything is likely to happen. As I see it Congress right now is at a point where they are capable of anything no matter how over the top it might be.
And any surprise will shock this market as we have seen the last month.
So, be careful. Despite the new highs, this market is subject to being derailed at any time. I know I keep saying that and the market keeps moving higher. But I tend to think I am the voice of reason in this hysteria. I have no ideology to hamstring me. I am purely issue driven which enables me to think a bit clearer than those that are burdened with a dogmatic ideology.
Enough rambling this morning. I will post any trades I make this morning and will have some opening comments during the first 15 min of the market open.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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