Where is the value in Week 5 of the NFL? Here are RickJ’s Westgate NFL Supercontest picks!

Before we get into the Westgate NFL Supercontest lets look at the past few days results.

We had another good weekend in College football with our 1 unit plays going 2-1 and our leans also 2-1.  Kent St +23 covered 3-24 UL Lafayette +7 won outright 21-16 and Minn +3.5 lost 17-31.

We are off to a slow start in MLB playoffs going 0-2 on our 1 unit plays from 2 days ago and 0-1 on our 1/2 unit Total.

Finally, we had our first NHL play of the season yesterday with the Rangers +123 losing 5-8. They fell behind 2-5 and then tied it up. The was it though:(

A comment about the NHL before I go into the NFL today. When you think about wagering on the NHL think MLB with far fewer plays.

Moneyline sports have a completely different feel to them then spread betting. So if you’re easily frustrated or have doubts about being able to withstand variance you should either lighten up on money line sports or pass completely.

They are not for everyone. The swings tend to be bigger and the edges smaller. Handicapping money line sports is entirely different than spread betting. Different considerations and much harder to find value.

If you have any leaks at all in your betting you will find it very hard to come out on top in money line sports.

I mention this as a caveat as many go into betting sports thinking its a cakewalk if you find someone successful to guide you. That is only the first step in the process. It is an important one and very difficult. For every 1,000 services out there you might find 1 that actually produces profits.

Once you have been lucky enough to find that service then you have to be able to battle everything else that gambling throughs at you. Variance, emotions, bankroll, bet sizing, leaks, tilt factor, to name just a few.

It’s a very tough journey from punter to seasoned handicapper.Very few make it.

Now on to the NFL:

I sit at 12-8 or 60% heading into week 5 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest. I was sailing along until a 1-4 week last week derailed me. Only Carolina saved me from a 0-5 week last week.

Much to my chagrin week 5 looks worse than week 4 for finding value. Nothing was clear-cut. Many had no edge at all I could find.

So I went with these 5 picks for the Westgate NFL Contest: (In the order I liked them at the time)

Jacksonville +8

Chargers +3.5

Carolina +2.5

Cleveland Pick

Dallas -2.5

Every one of these I could find reasons not to play them:) It was that kind of week.

I have my methods for finding value and sometimes the matchups do not accommodate me. When your betting you can just pass on a game. When you have to pick 5 games a week, you are always going to have some give and take in figuring out the best games.

The Westgate top 5 this week is:

Detroit

Cinci

Houston

Rams

Buffalo

They went 4-1 last week and sit at 9-11 for the season.

The bottom 5 this week is:

Tenn

New England

Tampa

Baltimore

Carolina

I avoided the top and bottom 5 on my picks with the exception of Carolina which fades the top pick and is in the bottom 5.

I now feel much better about Carolina;)

So far today I have sent out no plays.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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