Thursday we went 1-1 on our 1/2 unit plays both in the NBA. Clippers -6 was an easy winner as they won by 20. But we lost on toronto under 201.5 by a half a point. It was really looking like we were going to be on a 4-0 run on our half unit plays but with 8 seconds left Atlanta Scott hit a 27 ft 3 pointer with an assist by Hinrich that cost us the win on the under:(
Just 4 more day until opening day in Baseball. Be sure and sign up before opening day so that you can take advantage of the 130.00 back guarantee. Once opening day is past the only people that can qualify are the subscribers on opening day. So if you have any interest in joining us for baseball its best to be on board before April 4th.
I had a great question and answer this morning that I would like to share:
“With picking ~52.4% being breakeven, I am assuming your 1/2 unit plays are probably somewhere in the theoretical neighborhood of 54% and your full unit plays somewhere around 55.5%.
With those assumptions, if I encountered a -115 for one of your plays, the breakeven point would increase to ~53.5%.
Would it still be worth a 1/2 unit play?
If I encountered a -115 line on one of your full unit plays, should I back it down to a 1/2 unit?
On the other side of the scale, if I get one of your 1/2 unit plays at -105, should I turn it into a full unit play?
Almost all of my plays are on Bovada and they tend to move the from -105 to -115 very frequently.
Thanks for any insight you can give me.”
We are 30 min before the open and the market is hovering around yesterday’s close. The markets are overbought however not in an area that I would consider a mean reversion short yet. I have tightened up my mean reversion trades in this volatility and it has worked out well for me. My short term trades have proven to be a good strategy for the time being.
One of the keys to this rally is the AAII Sentiment. They are an organization that puts out quite a bit of good information for investors. Their Sentiment survey is something every swing trade should keep an eye on. Right now even after this run up sentiment is split about even between the bulls and bears. Typically what you want to see as a short term trader is extremes to the bull side or bear side and then consider a contrarian trade.
Now this is just one sentiment site. There are others, so what you want to do is keep track of the major ones and look at them as a contrarian. Similar to public betting in sports. It tells you where the edge might be on the long or short side of the market.
So right now we are at a point where the market is overbought technically but the sentiment is telling us something a bit different. That typically means be a short term trader:) And be sure and manage risk.
One thing to note is that for the first time this year the Nasdaq is threatening to close above the SP500 on a weekly basis. That is one of my all clear signs of being long the markets. But we still have today and tomorrow so that could change. I will keep you updated.
Now for a ridiculous news of the day. Kasich is taking heat for eating pizza with a fork! Honestly has American politics reached this low a level? Combine that with the attacks on candidates wives and its been a disheartening political season. I keep track of politics as closely as I keep track of sports and the markets. And I have to say considering the issues facing America and the World right now you would think the focus would be on more important topics:) And to head off any controversy I am an independent that considers the issue as opposed to any particular party. So no need for controversy there!
Back to the markets
I only have a few small positions and looking to perhaps take a day trade today as I did yesterday. You can view my closed trades by looking at my trading spreadsheet. And you can follow my trades by following @rickjswings. It’s a private twitter feed that is free for now. And might be for awhile at least until there are 48 hours in the day:)
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks