Where you ready for that 200 point dump in the markets yesterday??

4:45 Update

One game tonight in the NBA:

Oklahoma City

Golden State

Betting is 56% on the home favorite with the line staying steady at –8.5. Models are neutral while variables slightly favor Golden State. The public betting provides no clues on the game. Nothing here that would make me think either side has any positive value to the bettor. I am passing.

 

11:30  Update

Tuesday we continued our run in MLB going 2-0 on 1 unit plays and 1-0 on our 1/2 unit play. Our setup lost.

For 1 unit plays we had  Tampa Bay +134 winning 12-2 and Milwaukee +160 winning 4-2. For 1/2 unit plays, we had Oakland -114 wining 8-5.

So we are on a nice 6-0 run in MLB with a win in the NBA to make it 7-0 the last 3 days. When I said at the start of the season that the swings in MLB are larger than any other sport I handicap I think you have not realized why.:)

I believe the new filter I added to the handicapping has had an effect, however, its still to soon to tell after only 3 days.

I have sent out one play early this morning along with a setup. Everything else is borderline and will keep a watch on things through this afternoon.

For those of you interested in joining our group you can subscribe via the PayPal button on the upper right. Or if you would like to try a 3-day free trial you can follow @rick_sports my private twitter feed.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

 

Tuesday the markets gave back and more of what they gained on Monday. +200 -200 pt days is not conducive for 3 to 5 day swing trading as your going to get stopped out no matter which direction your trading. But saying that I am now positioned to the short side having placed some put trades in a few stocks that look to take a nose dive if the market weakens from here.

The market is off about 1/4% on the Globex so 30 min before the open it’s looking like a gap down. For gap traders, I am passing on a gap play this morning as one of the top variables I look at says NO. But other than that the gap trade looks pretty good especially after coming off a big trend day down.

So typically after trend days, you get consolidation. Two trend days in a row do not happen very often. So the idea today, if you’re scalping, is to find the range and trade long and short against it. Easier said than done:)

The Fed minutes come out today which can produce some volatility and we have options expiration Friday. So the next 3 trading days might continue the roller coaster ride we have seen.

As far as mean reversion we are still a bit away from considering that. Although another big move to the downside and its time to start looking for reversion plays. But I have a hunch there is no need to rush into this trade this time. The 200 pt down day on Tuesday after the Trend up day on Monday does not bode well for the markets. In addition, the liquidity that was present by the Fed Monday and Tuesday is gone the rest of the week.

So the risk is to the downside the rest of the week.

I was asked why I was not shorting the stock as opposed to buying puts. Shorting is not as easy as buying. First, the broker has to be able to borrow the shares so you can short the stock and 2nd it takes upwards to 5 min or so to find out. At least with my broker. So puts are fast and easy but the downside a bit more  expensive to trade. Both on commissions and the bid and ask spread.

The market is tanking again as I am writing this! I better get back to my charts.

And I am in a very good this morning as I am on a 7-0 run in sports betting the last Three days picking up a nice +7.225 Units.  

More on sports a bit later. I have sent out this morning a 1 unit play and a setup.

If you would like to follow my trades please follow @rick_sports. It’s my private twitter feed for investing. It’s free for now. And if you wish to join our sports betting group you can either subscribe via the PayPal button or get a 3-day free trial by following @rick_sports.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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