On Sunday sports betting MLB we went 1-4 on 1 unit plays for -2.68 Units. This brings us +9.95 Units for the Season in MLB.
It’s interesting to watch the ebb and flow of a season. If it is way off previous seasons you can get ideas on the effect of changes you made in the offseason and changes that might need to be considered the next offseason.
In MLB the last two seasons we had very little variance. Top to bottom was no more than 20 units. Most of the seasons were spent below the 0 line to end up with a small gain each season.
This season has taken a different tone. We started out a bit slow but then had a nice almost 20 unit run to the upside from the bottom. Now we are about 4 units off the high but solidly on the plus side for the season.
This is what you want to watch for all sports. Top to bottom swings especially comparing them to previous seasons. In poker, I always kept track of top to bottom swings for each game I played. It was one of the most significant numbers I kept track of as it told me after a few years the bankroll I needed to comfortably play at various limits.
Most gamblers do not consider top to bottom swings. You should add it to all your gambling endeavors.
I have still been getting a few questions about how to use the below numbers. Simply, if your doing your own handicapping do not wager on a team where there is a strong edge the other way from any of what we look at.
Simplifying if more, if you only look at the models only wager on a side that shows a No Edge + or better. Otherwise, you’re taking too much the worst of the models. And as we have seen the models in MLB are very solid. I do not think you will find any model that is better than what we are using here.
As always if you have any questions please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org or Skype: riccja
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks