The big WikiLeaks announcement this morning was a nonannouncement. What I had anticipated as being a potential market moving event if the information was damaging enough for Clinton was merely an announcement that material would be released before the end of the year.
With that behind the markets that potential event is now off the table. However with Assange one never knows. Just another event simmering in the background.
On the Geopolitical front, things did take a turn for the worse as the U.S. has now cut off negotiations with Russia regarding Syria. In addition, it appears that Russia is preparing for a potential nuclear war in the homeland. Along with that Russia is full speed ahead in providing countries that are hostile to our interests with Nuclear reactors the most recent announcement includes Cuba.
In addition, we have Russia, China, and Iran all warning the U.S. with dire consequences on a multitude of issues.
Now, of course, this could all be just rhetoric but it appears to be at the very least a potential powderkeg simmering that could erupt anytime. If any hostilities breakout that includes an attack on one of our planes, ships or people expect the market to tank big time. It might just be triggered by accident as our ships and planes are getting confronted often all over the world.
How serious is this development? On the issues that are for someone with far more expertise to comment upon. On the markets, I cannot imagine the shock that will take place and it will be quick and devasting to anyone over leveraged in these markets.
Keep a watch on things on the geopolitical front as that as far as I am concerned is where the risk to the markets is now.
I am long a medium term swing trade in SOYB. It’s very similar to my CORN trade of a few weeks ago. These trades have an excellent risk reward. I also traded a short swing yesterday which had 0 follow through that I exited at the close with a loss.
The market short term has a slightly positive bias. While medium term a solid positive bias. I will be looking again today for short swings if they trigger. As I type this the markets are about unchanged 20 min before the bell. They are also well off their overnight highs.
Also, as an addition risk, Lacker came out this morning and called for big rate hikes. So far the market has not responded to this. But if other fed heads get on the rate hike bandwagon look for this to cause an increase in volatility in the markets.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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