What will the Alabama special election today tell us about where the stock market is going?

Markets are slightly up an hour before the open.

Of note, Financials strong, Metals getting crushed, Oil and TLT down.

A positive bias for the markets an hour before the open.

We had a nice rally yesterday from a very oversold market. The rally still has some room to go but probably not much.

I suspect we have lower lows off this correction which could start at any time.

Today, however, might not be the day with the way the premarket looks.

I exited some mean reversion trades at the close yesterday and still have one trade left.

Today depending on the markets I will look for a breakout or gap continuation trade to take if breadth is right this morning. I have several stocks I am monitoring for that. BA, PAYX, and DLTR.

On the political odds front, today is the Alabama primary. Moore is staying at a 2 to 1 favorite over Strange. Seems like a no brainer to me to take Moore. We will get a glimpse today if my take is correct that establishment republicans are going to take a beating by nonestablishment republicans in 2018. Today will be the first indicator.

Establishment republicans have spent a lot of money supporting Strange. If he goes down, the logical thing would be for establishment republicans to rethink their anti white house strategy. If they do not, they are most likely going to get hit hard in 2018.

As far as the Dems, they have dug a hole for themselves avoiding issues and continuously being on the attack. Voters want problem solvers, not people that consider themselves “resistance”  This plays well to the Dems base, but in a national election, Trump getting elected was a message for everyone. Dems and Republicans.

Human nature what it is, however, I doubt either party will change its course. Should be interesting to see how this plays out. The dynamics are very interesting.

This means for the markets that with neither party changing course the Trump agenda by way of health care, tax cuts, infrastructure, is dead in the water.

Already there is rumbling on tax cuts by republicans. And Ryan is waffling on the wall. Health care is history for now. That means once the market understands this is lights out for awhile. As the Trump agenda was very much pro growth.

So event risk is very high. Both at home and abroad.

And that does not even consider what surprises the special counsel has for everyone.

So its short term trading for me, at least until mid to late October.

I post my trades on my private twitter feed @rickjswings. It is free.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

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