An interesting stock market change with QQQ gapping up 1.5% while the rest less than .5%.
Thanks to Amazon reporting after the close last night this morning is shaping up to be a big up day for the Nasdaq.
Watch to see if Breadth tanks early as it has almost every day in the last 2 weeks. Watch $ADD and $ADQD for clues the first 30 min of trading.
Of note, Metals, and oil off this morning, while TLT, Financials and the Dollar are on the plus side.
It looks like we have a confirmation of the dollar bottom reversal trade as it has now broken out to the upside. This trade in UUP could turn out to be a very good trade if we caught the trend change just right.
These trades are <50% winners but the gains far outweigh the losses to produce a nice positive result. I like this trade almost as much as I like the mean reversion trades.
WEAT was stopped out yesterday for a small loss. That is what you get most >50% of the time on these types of trades. I could have stayed in another day as there was a nice RSI divergence. But I am sticking with the plan. Once you start rationalizing exits you get into trouble.
We are still in CORN but it needs a plus day today. It’s right on the verge of the stop-out point.
HAL and XNCR are positions that I have had for a while now. XNCR is taking a beating. This trade is a mean reversion but in the biotech field. One thing about biotech is that you should not trade it if you cannot stomach the volatility. It’s not uncommon for 5% daily swings.
Biotech has taken a beating but I suspect it’s been overdone here and due for a nice bounce. We will see.
HAL, on the other hand, has a loss but has held up well the last few days.
On the home and world fronts, it is more of the same. No reason to rehash the insanity unless something new comes up. I have not seen anything new overnight worth commenting on. Nothing has changed, unfortunately.
Today again its the breadth that will dictate my short-term trades this morning. I have a few stocks on my list for a change.
One stock I am watching for a short-term swing trade is NFLX. Although it is gapping up almost 1% premarket which will make it a difficult trade.
I will be looking for a pullback or perhaps a gap and go trade if Breadth is right.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks