Will Brady take New England to an easy cover? A very complex question:)

3:45 Update

Two College football and one Pro game tonight:

Arizona

San Fran

Betting is 63% on the Road Favorite with the line moving from -2.5-101 to -3.5-110. Models slightly favor San fran, Variables are mixed, public betting neutral with a slight edge to San Fran. This is a game I would be at least taking in the Hilton contest if variables clearly favored San Fran. However they dont and are equal on both sides. So This game is a clear cut pass for me.

Western Kentucky

Louisiana Tech

Betting is 54% on the Road Favorite with the line moving from -3-106 to -2.5-120. Models clearly favor Louisiana Tech, Variables are neutral, Public betting is neutral. Without anything more than the model I am passing

Temple

Memphis

Betting is 58% on the home Fav with the line moving from -9.5-106 to-10 -109. Models are neutral, variables favor Temple, Public betting is neutral. This game would be a consideration for a play if the public betting was lower on the dog. But at 42% I see little edge there. So again a pass for tonight.

We had no plays again on Wednesday. But things will change as we are heading into a busy weekend for Football.

So far today I have sent out 2 one unit plays and also have a 1 unit play on Saturday so far.

Still working on the NFL but I have to say this week is a tough one! One game looks clear to me but not near as good as the Rams and Bears last week.

But I am still working on the NFL. Perhaps I am waiting for a sign from above! But so far no signs so will have to figure it out on my own.

I did not post any stock market information this morning as I have had a number of things come up and things are just starting to settle down a bit. Tomorrow things should get back to some semblance of normal.

I will be posting comments on tonight’s football games later this afternoon.

In the meantime here is an email and response I had yesterday:

“I have seen you mention that the Public doesn’t move lines anymore like in the old days. But Public betting seems to be the #1 filter in your handicapping. Is this still the case? And what does public betting tell you about a game if it doesn’t have any effect on line movement? Thanks”

My Response:

“The idea that it does not move lines is independent of the significance of what the public is doing. it does mean however that it’s much harder to get EV then what it used to be when the line almost always moved with the public betting.

What the line does now in relation to the public give you an idea where the “sharps” are  on the game. In addition of there is a reverse line move it would indicate some serious money by “sharps” .
The significance of this as to value depends on a number of different things. 1. how big the move is 2. what the % number is 3. what sport this is occurring in and 4. in some instances what part of the season the sport is in.”
This email and my response gives you a bit of insight on public betting and line moves along with the interpretation.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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