Will Canada’s head negotiator’s gaffe upend the trade talks? My thoughts

The Stock Market is unchanged this morning about 30 min before the open. TLT +.29, Oil Strong, Financials positive.
 
To me, this is a mixed bias this morning. Perhaps slightly favoring the long side. However, again, watch the financials and TLT for clues.
 
The news changed a bit from yesterday, as today China is acting a bit more unconfrontational on trade. However, in the world of geopolitics, not everything is what it seems.
 
But still, the stock market liked that change of tone yesterday with a nice rally.
 
The biggest news right now is that Hurricane Florence will hit land Friday on its current trajectory. Right now it is a category 4 and a direct hit would cause substantial damage.
 
As I said yesterday the weekend will not be finished before the headlines are that Hurricane Florence is Trump’s Katrina. I am confident the articles are already be written🙂
 
Let’s see how close I get to this prediction. The odds? I would put it at 5 to 1 in favor of these articles coming out by Monday. Assuming we get a direct hit on Friday.
 
I have written in the past on where to get reliable news. For print media, the only media that even bears a resemblance to old-style accurate journalism is the Wall Street Journal.
 
I find it amazing that they have not succumbed to the political wars, but they have stayed true to the profession.
 
In addition, you get some very good investment information each morning before the start of the trading day.
 
Except for a few bloggers, that is the only place I get my news from.
 
Today I expect a range day, absent any earthshaking news. Canada was looking good until the head negotiator went to a conference talking about Trump being a Tyrant.
 
Now, regardless, of your opinion on the subject, one cannot deny in the heat of a trade deal, that would not be a very good strategy:)
 
So far I have not seen any fallout resulting from that, similar to what we say when Trudeau insulted the President after the G7 meeting.
 
But the day is early. And I have not read any of Trump’s tweets this morning:)
 
On the U.S. political front just a normal day yesterday, where a Ca Republican running for Congress was attacked and almost stabbed by an upset liberal yelling “F_ck Trump”
 
As we approach the midterms, I do not doubt that this will be normal. This comes after a Republican GOP center in Colorado was firebombed.
 
Nice to know we live in a country where Democracy is alive and well. And that both parties respect the election process:)
 
With the political dysfunction, I do not see the stock market moving much before the midterms. Of course, I have been a “sky is falling” type for quite awhile now and the stock market has done nothing but makes new highs.
 
So, if you are wise, you will ignore my warnings and throw caution to the winds.
 
Perhaps a good thing to watch is whether Kavanaugh gets confirmed. I have said that getting 10 to 1 that he will not be confirmed is a pretty good wager.
 
Granted, with someone already taking McCains place it will make it much more difficult to overturn the nomination. But, the Republicans, never seem to have any difficulty doing the unexpected.
 
It’s clear that if the Senate Republicans do not have 50 votes, they will get 0 Democrat votes. You still have a few Republican Senators who have not said yea or nay. In addition, you have Flake and his Trump hating Cohorts that I am sure to have figured out the wisdom of voting no.
 
After all, a 4-4 Supreme Court puts the President in a weaker position in the event issues like impeachment, subpoena, or an indictment have to be decided.
 
A tough choice, considering the lack of moral character in some of the U.S. Senators.
 
If Kavanaugh goes down, this market is going to take a hard fall.
 
I should be around for a bit this morning, and if I take a swing trade I should be able to get it out to you.
 
If not I will have a few comments shortly after the open.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

 

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