Today is the day Trump’s enemies have been waiting for. Comey will testify in front of the Senate intelligence committee and as the spin goes will pave the way for Trump’s impeachment.
The problem is that the document Comey gave to the media yesterday tells a different story.
So, what is going to happen today? Most likely posturing by the Democrats and Never Trumpers to make the best out of a sad situation for them.
Expect innuendo, false accusations, over the top theories to rule the day.
Does this let Trump off the hook? Not so fast. You have a hostile witness combined with no rules as to the types of questions that can be asked. In a court of law, their would be rules as to how and what could be asked. Here there are none. It will be a real free for all.
And every negative nuance will be headlined by the mainstream media. It will be a day of spin, most likely the highest degree of insanity yet in this surreal process.
Finally, at the end of the testimony, I fully expect a movement to bring the guillotine to American justice. I can envision the throngs of people running through the streets yelling “Guillotine, Guillotine”
That is how far this hysteria has gone.
The effect this will have on the markets is hard to predict right now. We have a small gap up in the markets 45 min before the open. Financials are up oil down again and TLT off.
A market that is hard to find a bias either way premarket.
I would expect that if there is a surprise in the testimony negative to Trump the markets will nose dive. But the chances of a shock are small because of the detailed opening statement that has been presented.
For those of you that are going to watch this, I suggest perhaps a twitter feed (not of Trump) but Dershowitz or Circa news. You will get a good perspective on things without the spin you are going to find on every news channel, both left and right.
I had 2 setups that had a chance of triggering yesterday but softened up substantially before the close. So will still be waiting to see what might trigger. Both are still on the watch list.
For those of you that watch “House of Cards”, I have to say that the real-time events unfolding before our eyes are much more entertaining. You have every bit of high drama along with the immense stakes of every participant being on the line, their political life and death.
I have many friends that are staunch liberals and staunch conservatives. One thing that is common of both is they have an uncanny inability to listen to an argument contrary to their thinking.
This I am afraid mirrors what we are seeing in the U.S. today. Polarization is not going to go away anytime soon. Is there a breaking point? Who knows. The U.S. has been resilient in the past but this will be a real test for Democracy. And I am sorry to say it is not clear to me how it is going to come out.
That does not bode well for the markets. My prediction before May 1 was after May 14th all bets are off for the bull market.
So far that has not panned out. But we are only 2 to 3 weeks into this prediction and timing is something where you could be months off and be within the norm.
So be careful with your investing. These are very uncertain times with event risk (both foreign and at home) at levels we have not seen for some time.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
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