Will the gap hold this morning? What will Ga special election tomorrow tell us about polling?

A fathers day special today with the market gapping up over 1/2 % on QQQ and about .25% for the other indexes.

An important signal occurred on Friday and that is the exit signal was given on the QQQ/SPY weekly charts. That is just another indication that the wind might start being a headwind soon.

You would not know it from the open this morning, however. Of note, Financials are strong, metals weak, and TLT slightly down.

A slightly positive bias for premarket.

I received a few emails as to whether it’s time to short this market. Logically it looks like a short would be the way to go. However, the question to ask is do you have an unlimited amount of money to fade the trade if you are wrong? Options, of course, is a possibility but good luck finding a reasonably priced call.

So, in short, my answer is no! Do not short here. There are methods to short that cut our risk but we are far from shorting using these methods.

Bankruptcy courts are flooded with top and bottom pickers:)

Be smart and disciplined and you will give yourself the best chance to be a winning trader. Trade your emotions and hunches and you are toast!

On the political front, we have an opportunity tomorrow to assess Trump’s strength with the public. The Georgia special elections are tomorrow with the Democrat spending 8x what the Republican has spent for the House seat.

I go on several assumptions at the present in determining value on political wagers:

1. the polls are slanted toward the Democrat side by at least 10 points

2. the public side is the Democrat side as the mainstream media is non-stop favoring the Democrat and bashing the Republican

Those two assumptions if correct give a bettor some value to take advantage of.

So looking at the election tomorrow the polls have the Democrat with a 2.8 point lead according to real clear politics site.

The betting odds is around 3/2 in favor of the Democrat. So just based on the polling you have value betting on the Republican.

That is most likely as a result of my assumption number 2. But then if you add in assumption #1 you are most likely getting 3 to 2 on a 3 to 2 favorite. Not bad if you can get it.

So the election tomorrow will test a bit my assumption #1. If the Republican wins by 10 pts or more my assumption is spot on. If the Democrat wins then it might be time to be a bit cautious as to assumption 1 recognizing it is only 1 event.

Now back to the markets. I am flat and with the gap up will most likely sit the day out for trades. It will have to be a strong trend day up for me to consider trading a breakout today.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


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