How will the Health Care vote today affect the markets and of course another Political wager with +EV:)

An interesting day shaping up with a lot going on in the political front that has the potential to move the markets.

First, the vote on moving the health care bill along in the Senate is today. McCain is coming in after brain surgery either to vote yes or no. It’s only speculation at this point as to what his vote will be.

In addition, the Senate is voting on more sanctions for Russia today. My guess is that McCain is coming in more to voice his opposition to the presidents moves in Syria rather than health care. I have a hunch McCain will vote no on the health care vote today. Just a hunch.

Then we have the Fed tomorrow. Finally, last but not least there are rumblings that the President is going to remove Sessions soon. Potential candidates are Guiliani and Cruz.

I doubt Cruz will want the job and as far as Guiliani he probably will have reservations as the President passed him over for Secretary of State, a job he wanted badly.

All this is mere speculation at this point, but my guess is that it will happen very soon.

So all of these have the potential to jar the markets. So be aware as I have said many times, event risk is very high right now.

The markets despite the uncertainty are gaping up with the exception of QQQ which is down this morning. Of note, Oil strong again today, Metals weak, financials very strong this morning as is Biotech. TLT off sharply.

All this points to a positive bias this morning. Although, QQQ is a red flag.

My thought on how this plays out today is it will revolve around the health care bill moving along. If it gets killed in the Senate today I expect the markets to take a dive. That will create a good buying opportunity but a very short window of opportunity. Maybe a few days.

If the bill gets moved along, I expect the markets to react very positively. The odds 3/1 that a health care bill will not come out of the Senate before 8/5. McCain odds today is 50/50 on his vote

Today my guess is the best strategy is to wait for the dip on the failure of the health care bill to move. But before then exposes you to too much risk. If you miss out so be it.

Another political wager I like is on Jeff Flakes chances of reelection. Right now the odds are 2/1 that he will be reelected and 8/1 that he will win the primary. I think they don’t have value on taking the 8 to 1 on Flake not getting past the primary.

This wager is way overpriced in my judgment. No matter what happens to Trump before the primary his base will remember who supported him and who did not. Honestly, I think the odds on the primary should be at least 3 to 1 against::)

Another delusional check up for me. Wray was one and so far I have been correct with the odds going from 4 to 1 in favor of confirmation to 2 to 1 against. Should be interesting.

For today I have a few stocks set up to get long but again I am going to wait for the health care bill, or at least until I see how the wind is blowing on the bill.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


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