The market is hovering around even this morning 30 min before the open with QQQ in the lead. Also, QQQ on the weekly charts has now signaled a buy.
However, this has been wiggling back and forth the last few months so I would take it with a grain of salt.
Of note, Metals are strong, Oil weak, TLT positive. Not much to go on premarket.
The market short term now is arguably neutral if not overbought a bit. There are a number of positive signals indicating further upside, however, I do not think the upside is minimum risk wager.
I have to say however the markets are taking in stride the delay in the Health Care vote in the Senate. The odds of it passing now by August 15 are 10 to 1 against. That is generous. My guess, more likely 50 to 1.
The Republicans can not agree on anything. So to think they will round up 50 votes on any bill is wishful thinking. There are just too many considerations for the poor Senators.
First, the never Trumpers have to consider what effect this will have in making Trump successful. They will risk everything, and probably have, to doom Trump’s presidency. Then you have the Congressmen taking incredible amounts of money from the Insurance Industry. These people have to be satisfied at any cost. And finally, there are the Rand Pauls that are principled to a fault and will stick to their guns on the Federal government being involved in health care. By the way, Rand Paul is the only one in that category.
But I have left out the American people. Not by accident. As the American people do not fit into the equation. An afterthought for most of our Senators.
Therein lies the problem. I might add it is equally true for the Democrats. Except at this point it’s all about voters for them. Free anything to them means more voters.
Now if you think that this bodes well for tax cuts think again. Tax cuts will take the same demise as the health care bill. And the never Trumpers and Democrats will be ecstatic. The never trumpers will see that this means doom for Trump and the Dems not only that but a window of opportunity to save them from Russia, Russia, Russia that is destroying their party.
With this backdrop, where do you think the market is heading once reality sets in? Yes, I agree, right down the toilet.
Timing is everything however so it is not enough to predict what is going to happen. When is the impossible task?
So, with that backdrop, recognize that if you have a substantial portion of your wealth in the markets you need to be aware that the risk-free markets will most likely be a thing of the past.
It is not all doom and gloom, however. If in 2018 the people decide to get rid of all never trumpers now in office, Then there still might be some hope for health care and tax cuts. But until then most likely not.
Finally, the big question is whether Trump can last until then. The assault on the presidency is unprecedented. In the wings, you have the special counsel and his Democratic minions looking into every corner and then some to bring Trump and his team down.
So that is another nail in the coffin for this market.
Enough doom for today:) I am looking for day trades only today and the basket of stocks is very thin this morning. But I will share any trades I make today on Twitter.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today