It should be an interesting day as today caps what historically has been a bullish week for the markets. Unlike many trends in sports betting that are worthless, historical trends in the markets typically have to do with money flows around certain times of the year. While this is no guarantee it does provide a tailwind or headwind depending.
The market now is in neutral territory and is neither overbought or oversold. Now for mean reversion trading its a matter of waiting until the next extreme shows up.
On the geopolitical front, nothing has changed with the exception of the president of the Philippines declaring allegiance with China and stating America is lost. From a market moving standpoint my guess is in the short term it will be overlooked. However, in the long term it has the potential to be a market mover depending on the stance Duarte takes on our bases there and the Defense Cooperation Agreement between the Philippines and the U.S.
However, in the long term it has the potential to be a market mover depending on the stance Duarte takes on our bases there and the Defense Cooperation Agreement between the Philippines and the U.S. Duarte speaks his mind and right now it’s very much anti U.S. It’s just another hot spot now that investors should keep a watch on.
Seems the list just keeps growing, unfortunately.
This morning we get a historical headwind that lasts from the open until around Noon EST.
It’s a good idea to know these backtested historical trends to use as a filter or even to trade them.
The market is off about 1/5% an hour before the open and I am flat the market having exited my last two mean reversion trades on Wednesday before the close.
I did happen to make a short swing long yesterday for a nice profit but other than that nothing else looked very good to me.
My game plan this morning is, of course, going to depend on the open. But I plan on getting short the SPY at the open to hold for several hours, no later than 9 pst. If you are taking this trade you can use sds or buy puts in spy.
Once we get past the first 2.5 hours of trading I will look for swings but not before then.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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