Same picture as yesterday with the markets up slightly into the open. Of note, financials are weak as is oil. Tlt is up 1/3%.
This looks to me like a bias to the short side today based upon the premarket activity.
I am pretty much sitting this trading out as we are getting a lot of chop and nothing good to take a crack at for a short term trade. The market is in neutral territory as opposed to being overbought or oversold short term.
For short term trades, I like to trade in one of two environments. A breakout trade where the day is a trend day or a breakout or mean reversion trade when the market is oversold. Neither of these is where we are at this Wednesday morning.
Nothing new at home or abroad. That means insanity at home and insanity abroad. Not the backdrop for the continuation of a bull market. Combine that with seasonality and the Fed, look out:)
At least that is how I read things. As far as news affecting the markets I see nothing but negative news as we go forward. A Harvard study came out with a breakdown of the negative news about Trump which was hitting almost 90% by the Post, Times and CNN. In addition, you have Congress buckling at the knees with some actively opposing everything now that Trump does. And that is a number of Republicans.
So if you’re looking for good news, I doubt you will get much.
As I see it the news cycle will stay until the end of Trump’s presidency and continue on once they realize they have the power to shape political outcomes. The days of ” Broadcast News” is over. (A movie from years ago on ethics in journalism)
As far as Congress, that will change dramatically but only if Trump gets a second term. Then self-preservation will set in with members of the Republican party. But that is a long way off. Right now they are betting on one term or less. Many have their careers on the line.
BTW, the odds on a second term are around 5/2 against last I looked. And to me, that seems about right at this point. Maybe a little high but not enough to back up the trucks. On finishing his first term however you can get +120 or better. That to me is a nice overlay. At least today:)
In any event, you get the drift that positive news is going to be sparse for awhile with negative news all the time.
Let’s see how close I get to my predictions. I could end up being completely wrong and this bull will keep charging ahead. We will see.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
