Let’s start with some interesting reads I have found for this morning:
http://dashofinsight.com (required weekly reading!!!)
The markets are up slightly in premarket trading. Of note, Financials, oil, metals are all to the plus side. Biotech off slightly as is TLT.
Overall I view this as an upward bias for today if these premarket readings hold. Oil and financials are a pretty good indicator of where the market might be headed after the open. (Only a bias, however)
I seem to be getting a lot of feedback on my posts relating to the political environment here in the U.S. Some good and some bad and some very bad.
Let me say that I am an independent. I voted for Obama for his first term. I voted for Trump for his first term. I view matters in ways few do as I am not driven by any Ideology.
I am issue driven. I usually can see both sides of an issue and can effectively argue either side. That comes from years of being a trial attorney.
Most of my opinions are not so dogmatic I cannot be persuaded that the other side has merit. But it does require a logical discussion rather than an emotional ideological argument without substance.
The purpose of this site is to understand how matters at home and abroad create a backdrop in which the stock market operates. Of course, it is more complex than that but politics at home and abroad create enormous investing opportunities if you can decipher the “noise” from the facts.
One has to realize that the decision making that is being made both at home and abroad are made by humans as opposed to programmed computers. Humans make mistakes of monumental proportions daily. Many humans are driven by power and money. Many humans have personal traits that are self-destructive.
So our Congress is no different than the rest of the population in that regard. The idea that they will somehow be objective and fair when voted in is a fantasy. They bring to their office the same frailties that humans have in the general population. In some instances more so as they get ahold of an addicting power structure that oftentimes transforms them.
In addition, they are subject to the enticement of monumental rewards from special interests to promote an agenda. Untold wealth for them and their family, for a price.
I say this because that is how you need to evaluate what is occurring today in the U.S. Once you factor this in you can then make some educated decisions on how this might affect the markets.
For instance, now matter what your political beliefs are one has to give Trump a plus for the start of his Mideast trip. If you are overly negative you really need to take a close look at your thinking.
But the point, more importantly, is assuming Trump’s Mideast trip goes spectacularly what effect will this have with Trump back at home.
To me it is easy. For the people that have voted for Trump, it will reinforce the idea they made the correct decision. For those that were on the fence and are middle of the road with no extreme view, those people will most likely start swaying positive toward Trump.
For the left wingers and never Trumpers it will not do a thing. These groups are all in to weaken and remove Trump from office. When I say all in they have bet everything. The Democrats, if they are wrong, will most likely be a permanent minority party. The Never Trumpers are risking the end of their political careers.
If things go wrong for the never Trumpers they will not be able to win a position as dog catcher. The will be pariahs in the Republican party and in the U.S.
Pretty high stakes I would say. In addition, you have enormous amounts of money being thrown at weakening Trump and his removal. Most of these riots are started by far left groups financed by the likes of people that have an interest in weakening Trump. So it becomes very profitable for those in Congress to remove and weaken Trump.
Remember, under our system, special interests, for the most part, are what drives our government. Not politicians that go to D.C. to help America. If the two things align fine, if not it is the special interests that take priority.
Trump is a threat not only to the special interests but also to the idea of being in Congress and retiring as a multi-millionaire. The American political dream is at risk. After all, Obama gets millions for one speech ad now is staying at 15,000 a night resorts. Not bad for a public servant.
I bring all of this up to tell you that no matter how successful Trump’s Mideast trip is the vitriol at home is just going to get worse. The rioting is just going to get worse. Congress is just going to get worse.
The everyday American’s agenda is going to be put on hold while all our public servants’ efforts are going to be expended on the D.C. intrigue rather than passing bills.
I have seen this before when they went after Clinton. I was shocked at the vitriol the Republican’s displayed to attack him and remove him.I was as vocal against that as I am now.
What is interesting is that the same players in Congress back then are still around and they are at the forefront of weakening this President.
That is as political as I am going to get on this site. But the entire point is that my opinion has not changed that this bull is about over. Unless the Fed shifts gears and sanity come back to D.C. and the mainstream media the market will face reality. We are seeing the beginning stages now.
The leaks will be increasing with most being false as most have been up until now. The leaks will shake the markets at their core in my opinion.
So do not get optimistic in your investing until normalcy starts setting in. That will be for a long time it seems.
I am sticking to very short term trading with a tight leash. My entire investment portfolio is hedged right now. It is something I think everyone should consider right now.
Those are my thoughts on a Monday morning. If anyone has any feedback feel free to share it with me.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today